Zelenskyy will no doubt be anxiously watching U.S. midterms on Nov. 8

HALIFAX—In the debris field of contemporary public life, there aren’t many political heroes. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is an exception. He has done extraordinary things. He has crowd-funded a war. And not just any war, but an invasion of Ukraine by Russia. No mean feat. He has stared down a psychopathic dictator in Vladimir Putin. Last March, when the invasion began, most observers thought it would be over in a few days. That was when many in the West still thought Russia was a super power, instead of the remnants of one. Now the betting is that Zelenskyy will drive the Russians out of the territories they recently and illegally annexed. He may even take back Crimea, which Moscow annexed in March 2014. The question isn’t whether Zelenskyy can survive the war with Russia. The question now is whether political support for his war will survive the midterm elections in the United States. What is putting the West’s military aid to Ukraine at risk? It comes down to the perfect storm of coalescing factors. First, Putin is cleverly, if diabolically, weaponizing winter. He has already destroyed 30 per cent of the power grid in Ukraine. Cold nights ahead in Kiev and a lot of other places across the country. It is harder to be patriotic when you’re freezing. Putin hopes that will be a morale killer for a people who have so far demonstrated uncommon valour against the invader. And then there is Europe, where Putin hopes that public support for the fight against Russia will drop along with the temperature. There have already been protests in several European countries that the cost of sanctions against Russia is too high—the loss of Russian natural gas for home-heating, and skyrocketing energy prices. Some protesters say that the sanctions are hurting Europeans more than they are hurting Russians. But it is in the United States where Ukraine and Zelensky face the real possibility of a policy change if the Republicans win back the House, the Senate, or both in the Nov. 8 midterm elections. The GOP has made clear that cost-cutting and reducing the runaway American deficit will be their priorities—when they are not witch-hunting Democrats. Ukraine has been an expensive proposition for all the Allies, but particularly the Americans. The U.S. has already provided $60-billion worth of military aid to Ukraine. Even in good times, that number would raise eyebrows. But these are not good times. These are times of shortages, supply chain issues, and killer inflation. Every American knows that the war in Ukraine is the biggest factor in the pain at the pump. Key media messengers are already setting up the American people to revisit the commitment to the Ukraine War. Take Fox News, which is information central for supporters of the far-right. Tucker Carlson, who has decided to use his considerable talents to be a stooge for the GOP and Rupert Murdoch, recently called Zelenskyy “a celebrity-endorsed dictator of the most corrupt nation on Earth.” Heady stuff, when you consider that Tucker Carlson Tonight is the second highest-rated prime time news show on television, with an average audience of 3.2 million viewers on a nightly basis. The GOP routinely tests out lines of attack on Fox, and Carlson’s rant against Zelenskyy is not to be trivialized. Tonight’s TV rant could become tomorrow’s GOP policy if the audience buys in. Carlson has zeroed in on three flashpoints for Americans when it comes to the Ukraine War. The prohibitive cost, reflexive MAGA xenophobia, and what occasionally looks like ingratitude on Zelenskyy’s part. Even U.S. President Joe Biden warned Ukraine’s president against looking like an ingrate. Here’s the way Carlson put it: “What? Some uppity foreigner in a T-shirt demanding money for his ‘critical economic needs.’ We have critical economic needs too, buddy. Who are you, troll? Go away!” It is no accident that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy went out of his way to say that a GOP-led House would not give Ukraine a “blank cheque” when it comes to military aid. For now, McCarthy is the minority leader in the House. But he could become Speaker if, as is widely expected, the Democrats lose on Nov. 8. While it is true that McCarthy walked back some of his musings on cutting aid to Ukraine, he promised that there would be greater “oversight” of future aid. In politics, “oversight” is one of those spandex words. It can mean just about anything. And when you’re fighting a war, a delay in aid can be as deadly as a cut. Zelenskyy will no doubt be anxiously watching the election results, fully aware that Ukraine needs the United States, if it is to drive out the Russian invaders. He knows that a GOP Congress might be very different from the Democratic one that gave him the tools of modern warfare to carry on a heroic resistance. But even on the left, there are signs that some Democrats are making the connection between high energy and food prices, and the war in Ukraine. A simple equation is emerging in the background of U.S. politics: war equals inflation. That may be why the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a group of liberal Democrats, sent a letter to the White House urging a change in the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy. Led by Pramila Jayapal, they petitioned the president for a negotiated settlement to end the war. After fierce blowback from within the party, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus withdrew the letter, claiming that it had been sent out by staff before being properly vetted. No one should be convinced by that lame excuse, especially the president of Ukraine. The United States proved how mercurial it could be as an ally in its disastrous exit from Afghanistan and, generations earlier, in Vietnam. If a recession hits, if inflation keeps rising, despite punishing hikes in interest rates, the drum-beat for a “negotiated” settlement to end the war will build. It would come at a high cost. After all, how does one negotiate with a war criminal? Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist. The Hill Times

Zelenskyy will no doubt be anxiously watching U.S. midterms on Nov. 8

If a recession hits, if inflation keeps rising, despite punishing hikes in interest rates, the drum-beat for a 'negotiated' settlement to end the war in Ukraine will build. It would come at a high cost. After all, how does one negotiate with a war criminal?

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Zelenskyy will no doubt be anxiously watching U.S. midterms on Nov. 8

If a recession hits, if inflation keeps rising, despite punishing hikes in interest rates, the drum-beat for a 'negotiated' settlement to end the war in Ukraine will build. It would come at a high cost. After all, how does one negotiate with a war criminal?

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