LAV story: Canada’s armoured vehicle leadership is a pipe dream

OTTAWA—Earlier this month, Defence Minister Anita Anand boasted that Canada is regarded as a “leader” in the provision of modern armoured fighting vehicles to Ukraine. In an interview with Global News, Anand stated “in terms of vehicles, I’ve told my colleagues across the NATO alliance to think about Canada as a leader in this area because what we are providing to Ukraine are brand-new vehicles fresh off the line to make sure that Ukraine has best-in-class technology.” Anand was referring to the recent shipment of 39 Light Armoured Vehicles (LAVs) directly from the General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) facility in London, Ont., to Ukraine. While I have no doubt that the hard-pressed Ukrainian military will welcome any donation of modern weaponry, I do not think that Anand quite grasps the scale and scope of the current conflict in Ukraine. According to United States and United Kingdom intelligence sources, Russia has lost more than 2,000 main battle tanks in the first eight months of combat. While Ukraine’s losses are not reported, it is safe to say that Canada’s 39 Light Armoured Vehicles will make roughly one week’s worth of battlefield attrition in Ukraine. Also, if NATO sources are accurate, to date, Ukraine has captured and re-employed some 440 Russian main battle tanks and it is believed that Ukraine now possesses more armour than the Russian invaders. As for Anand’s point that Canada can lead the way in terms of providing armoured vehicles in the future, one has to politely ask “in what universe?” The fact that Canada had these 39 brand-new LAVs to give away directly from the GDLS factory has its origins in a 2018 diplomatic spat between Canada and Saudi Arabia. It is a little-publicized fact that Saudi Arabia is Canada’s best customer for arms exports. Over the past two decades, GDLS-Canada has produced more than 1,400 LAVs for the Saudi kingdom. In August 2018, the Saudis had just placed a whopping $15-billion order for more LAVs from GDLS when then-foreign minister Chrystia Freeland publicly denounced the Saudi kingdom for human rights violations. In turn, the Saudis expelled Canada’s ambassador to Riyadh and cancelled all new trade deals. Canada stood by Freeland’s position and shrugged off the Saudi rebuke as simply the cost of holding rogue regimes accountable. That was not the sentiment at General Dynamics USA when Saudi Arabia stopped making payments for the Canadian-built LAVs. Technically, Saudi Arabia did not owe any money to GD-USA as military sales are run through the Canadian Commercial Corporation (CCC), which acts as the middleman. However, this was simply semantics, and GD-USA was indeed taking the hit as CCC could not pay for the vehicles if the Saudi kingdom didn’t fork over the cash. To resolve this impasse, the Canadian government hastily moved up its own plans to buy new LAVs, doubled the purchase order, and provided GDLS-Canada with an upfront $600-million interest-free loan. This deal was for $3-billion and GDLS-Canada is to build a total of 360 new LAVs for the Canadian Army. The 39 we just shipped to Ukraine were available only because the Saudi dispute forced the Liberal government’s hand into bailing out GDLS-Canada and their parent company in the U.S. While this batch of new LAVs never actually entered service with the Canadian Army, they are still slated to eventually replace our Army’s existing worn-out older armoured personnel carriers. Given GDLS-Canada’s production track record—which assembles about 70-100 LAVs a year—Anand’s promise to lead the way in arming Ukraine is a pipe dream. Furthermore, while GDLS-Canada produces a world-class quality LAV, to date, this class of light-armoured vehicle has not played a major role in the static battlefields in eastern Ukraine. The Russian Soviet-era-built LAVs have proven to be extremely vulnerable to modern anti-tank weaponry. Even the heavier main battle tanks on both sides have been of questionable value. What has proven effective in Ukraine is long-range artillery with precision munitions. That is what Ukraine really needs and unfortunately Canada does not produce such ordnance. While it is understandable that Anand would like to capitalize on the “Stand with Ukraine” public sentiment by telling us we are “leading” the way, we are not, nor will we be in the foreseeable future. Scott Taylor is the editor and publisher of Esprit de Corps magazine. The Hill Times