Is a blue wave headed for the Rock?

OTTAWA—Over the last few weeks, I have been home in Newfoundland and Labrador more frequently. No, it is not because I am plotting some political run myself, but some illness and death in the family meant more time on the Rock. It being home, federal politics is both a fascination and a source of much conversation. Readers of both this column and paper will know well the federal political score in Newfoundland and Labrador. Prior to the last federal election in 2021, the Conservatives had not had a seat in the province since 2011. Conservative Cliff Small defeated likeable longtime former Liberal Member of Parliament Scott Simms in 2021 in what was widely considered an upset to everyone but Small. In that 2021 election, with the retirement of then-NDP MP Jack Harris, the New Democrats were unable to protect his former St. John’s East seat. It was taken by now Liberal MP Joanne Thompson. So, after the 2021 election, the Liberals now hold six of the province’s seven seats. The federal Liberals—bar one or two exceptions—have always held a strong base of support in my home province. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau generally gets a warm reception there and has many friends on our shores. The prime minister also has a strong relationship with the province’s Liberal premier, Dr. Andrew Furey. Both would argue that rapport has been fruitful for all parties. I was fascinated by two developments that I discovered on my repeated pilgrimages east. The first was I kept hearing of multiple names—some with political experience, and others with good popular appeal—who were supposedly interested in running as federal Conservatives in the next federal election. Why is this unique? Because going back to the 2008 campaign, when then-premier Danny Williams launched his “Anything But Conservatives” campaign against Stephen Harper, with some exceptions, getting people to stand as a Conservative candidate in Newfoundland and Labrador has been like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Some of the names shared with me have ties to the Williams government. Who’d have thought that would have ever been possible? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with media before a Liberal caucus meeting in the West Block on Oct. 26. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Today’s burst of enthusiasm for Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador may evaporate as quickly as I heard it. Equally, the Liberals have some strong incumbent MPs there who aren’t about to roll over. But something has changed in the political winds. It may be as simple as rash political opportunism, as locals sense Liberal vulnerability and want to pounce. Trudeau’s popularity could be on the wane, and that of opposition leader Pierre Poilievre is on the rise. And who knows what other variables. But it is different. The second tremor in the ecosystem was the heavy Conservative advertising buy I heard while in town. In the span of three hours while driving around St. John’s, I heard no fewer than five radio ads where Poilievre was encouraging residents to stand up against “Trudeau’s carbon tax” on home heating oil. This has been a hot topic in the province. Premier Furey has publicly sought relief for citizens from the prime minister. Last week, the Conservatives put forward a motion in Parliament to address this. While it was defeated, it did get the support of Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal MP Ken McDonald. When a political party spends money in a region which has long been barren for them, that suggests they have money to spend and believe there are seats to be won there. While the Conservatives have certainly advertised in the province before, the sheer volume, specific issue targeting, and length of time from the election suggests they might be taking a new approach to winning in Newfoundland and Labrador. So, while national stories focus on debating Poilievre’s relationship with the national press and what that means to democracy’s oxygen, a whole different game is being played by the Conservatives—at least in Newfoundland and Labrador. And I imagine we aren’t distinct in that regard as much as we would like to think we are. Tim Powers is vice-chairman of Summa Strategies and managing director of Abacus Data. He is a former adviser to Conservative political leaders. The Hill Times

Is a blue wave headed for the Rock?

Today’s burst of enthusiasm for Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador may evaporate as quickly as I heard it. But something has changed in the political winds.

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Is a blue wave headed for the Rock?

Today’s burst of enthusiasm for Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador may evaporate as quickly as I heard it. But something has changed in the political winds.

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