What to expect in the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8

OAKVILLE, ONT.—To understand what’s truly going on in the crazy and wacky world of American politics, you really need to rely on people with expertise. Fortunately for me, thanks to my past work in the United States, I happen to have several American contacts; smart and well-informed people who I can reach out to whenever I need to gather intelligence. And sometimes they reach out to me. As a matter of fact, one of my American political consultant friends recently sent me a detailed analysis he put together on the likely results of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8. It’s interesting stuff, packed with lots of insights, so I thought I’d share it. But before I go on, let me say, while my friend was okay with me sharing his research, he didn’t want to be attributed. So, consider what you’re about to read based on my anonymous source. Anway, here’s what I gleaned from the main topics he covered: Main issues for Americans According to the polls, the issues that dominate right now in most American states are economy/inflation, crime and justice, and immigration/border chaos. (All these issues, by the way, favour the Republicans). Other issues gaining traction include abortion and corruption. Notably missing from this list of key election issues is environment/climate change. Major differences 2020 versus 2022 Among the things that distinguish 2022 from 2020, is that former U.S. president Donald Trump is no longer the focus of attention, even where he has endorsed candidates. Another important difference is that the Democrats are less enthusiastic and seem to be fighting a “rear-guard action.” Also interesting is that neither Republicans nor Democrats are raising as much money in 2022 as they did in 2020. One similarity, interestingly, is that COVID is undermining U.S. President Joe Biden’s credibility, just as it undermined Trump’s credibility. Senate race No matter how you slice it, the Senate race will be close. The Republicans have momentum heading into election day, but some of their “shaky” candidates could end up hurting their chances. The high-profile race in Pennsylvania (where “Dr. Oz” is the Republican candidate) is a toss-up. Things to note: The Republicans only have slight leads in some states they already control—Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah, and Wisconsin—but they have a chance of taking a seat away from the Democrats in Nevada. One state to keep an eye on is Georgia. Demographic shifts in the state favour the Democrats, but the economy is a big issue there, and Biden seems to be dragging down his party. Best-case scenario for the Republicans is they take the Senate 53-47; best case for the Democrats is they win 52-48. Upshot: nobody wins in a blowout. House of Representatives race One advantage the Democrats possess in this race is they already control the House. Incumbency matters. What’s more, the abortion issue has motivated single and college-educated women, a key Democratic constituency. Yet, the Republicans also have some things working in their favour: their base is highly energized, “woke” Democrats in office make for excellent targets, Democrats hold several seats located in districts that are traditionally Republican, and the Republicans are helped by recent favourable redistricting. At any rate, all things considered, my friend believes the Republicans will gain 15-20 seats, giving them control of the House. Of course, my friend’s analysis goes into much more depth than I'm providing here. I’m boiling it down for the sake of brevity. Still, it still gives us a pretty good picture as to what we can expect on U.S. election day. It should be fun to watch. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times