Trudeau’s got an inflation problem, whether or not he caused it

OAKVILLE, ONT.—If you want to know who’s going to win the next federal election, pay less attention to opinion polls and more attention to inflation reports. After all, inflation is to the popularity of incumbent governments what meat grinders are to baloney. Indeed, I’d argue that rising inflation is especially bad news for Canada’s Liberal government, for reasons that are obvious and also a little less obvious. Let’s begin by stating the obvious reasons. First off, everybody in Canada, regardless of their race, regardless of their creed, regardless of which NHL team they root for, feels inflation’s sting every time they put gas in their car, every time they buy groceries, and every time they turn on their furnace. As a matter of fact, it looks like the upcoming winter is going to be especially brutal to Canadian wallets. According to one media report I’ve seen, an expert is predicting electric and natural gas bills could rise by between 50 to 100 per cent this winter, with some bills rising by as much as 300 per cent! On top of that, high inflation usually triggers increases in interest rates, which also ramps up economic anxiety amongst the populace. Needless to say, all of this makes voters angry and resentful, and many of them will point the finger of blame directly at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. And no, it doesn’t matter if Trudeau isn’t to blame for the onset of inflation, it doesn’t matter if it’s worse in other countries, it doesn’t matter if there’s no short-term, painless way to stop it; at the end of the day, all that matters is he’s the prime minister and the loonie ultimately stops at his desk. Simply put, if inflation continues to eat away at people’s incomes, the Liberals will likely see their support eaten away at the ballot box. Mind you, Trudeau isn’t the only world leader facing this problem. For example, it’s possible the issue of inflation will wreak havoc on American President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party in the upcoming midterm elections. Basically, it’s a problem no leader can sweep under the rug. So now let’s discuss the less obvious reasons as to why inflation could hurt Trudeau. To begin with, in my view, Trudeau’s main strength as a politician is his ability to be aspirational and passionate about issues he personally cares about—climate change, reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, globalized trade—the kind of stuff that gets him standing ovations at international conferences. However, his main weakness as a politician is his seeming inability to connect emotionally with Canadians on issues that exist outside his own personal ideological agenda, issues such as inflation. So, when it comes to inflation, Trudeau doesn’t seem to care. Adding to this perception is Trudeau’s unwillingness to blunt inflation by, say, temporarily scrapping his carbon tax. Contrast that to Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who, in the name of helping ordinary Ontarians, did cut taxes to help reduce soaring gas prices. Meanwhile, the prime minister’s chief political rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, is strong where Trudeau is weak. Unlike Trudeau, Poilievre knows how to empathize with Canadians who are worried about inflationary pressures. As former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney recently told the media, “I think he’s (Poilievre) really in his wheelhouse, focusing on the cost of living, inflation.” Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, pictured, is 'in his wheelhouse' when it comes to empathizing with voters about inflation, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney recently told media. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade To back up Kenney’s point, a recent poll showed that Canadians rank Poilievre as the leader who’s most trusted to reduce inflation. Make no mistake, that could be the next election’s number one issue. So, what should Trudeau do? For starters, I’d suggest he think about cutting his carbon tax. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. www.gerrynicholls.com The Hill Times

Trudeau’s got an inflation problem, whether or not he caused it

Trudeau's main weakness as a politician is his seeming inability to connect emotionally with Canadians on issues that exist outside his own personal ideological agenda—issues such as inflation.

Canada’s aging crisis and a call for reform in eldercare

Sudan’s warring sides and the long-simmering ethnic conflict

Balanced approach needed on right-to-repair bill, protecting IP rights and public safety

Reflections from a new citizen

Public Safety Canada’s dealing with natural and communication infrastructure disasters

As COP29 wraps up, will Canada finally stop funding fossils this fall?

This just in: is Poilievre charismatic?

Decoding Trudeau’s olive branch to protesters

Deciphering a Liberal attack

It’s okay for partisans to be nice

Poilievre has an energy advantage

News

Get free news updates

Opinion

Submit a guest opinion article

resources

Advertise

subscribe

get help

Get free news updates

Submit a guest opinion article

Trudeau’s got an inflation problem, whether or not he caused it

Trudeau's main weakness as a politician is his seeming inability to connect emotionally with Canadians on issues that exist outside his own personal ideological agenda—issues such as inflation.

Get The Weekend Point of View Newsletter