Poilievre may not have the chops to take down Trudeau

HALIFAX—“I don’t see any signs of traction for Pierre Poilievre.” These words were spoken on background by a senior Liberal who is less than enamoured with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. With a long history in the party running back to Pierre Elliott Trudeau, he is critical of the way in which the current prime minister has shunned veterans in the party, dissolved the Liberal caucus in the Senate, and chose not to consult old hands. They have seen a thing or two in their time, and still believe they have something to contribute. But his assessment of the new Conservative leader is purely professional. In his opinion, the boy-politician who now leads the CPC just doesn’t have the chops to take Trudeau down. The latest poll by Nanos Research bears out that interpretation—for now. It comes down to a simple fact. Canadians don’t seem to think that being a far-right attack-dog confers the credentials to be prime minister. Even with painful inflation, and a PM with obvious baggage after three terms in power, Canadians in the Nanos Research poll gave Trudeau a huge lead over Poilievre. If only Trudeau and Poilievre appeared on the ballot, 46 per cent of respondents would choose Trudeau as PM and just 30 per cent the new Conservative leader. Nik Nanos rightly observes that the incumbent always does better in these polls, because they already have the position and are “a better known commodity.” But the fact is, Poilievre has been in politics longer than Justin Trudeau. And he is very well known from his long record both in and out of government: supporter of Stephen Harper’s Zero Tolerance for Barbaric Cultural Practices Act, rabid anti-vaxxer, and champion of the infamous siege of Ottawa that masqueraded under the name of the Freedom Convoy. For Poilievre, the occupation of Ottawa by a mob was just another opportunity for a selfie. And the Nanos Research poll revealed another key weakness in Poilievre’s attempt to appeal to Canadians, other than the ones who downed the Kool-Aid inside the circled wagons of the recent CPC leadership race. When it comes to women voters, Trudeau leaves Poilievre in his vapour trail, with a stunning 52 per cent favouring the PM, against just 22 per cent for Poilievre. Those are not only losing numbers for Poilievre in the all-important suburban areas, but just about everywhere else. As predicted by those who know him best, Poilievre has not moderated his right-wing messaging. In what appears to be a spiteful response to some key MPs who didn’t support his leadership, Poilievre dropped two of his strongest members from his shadow cabinet: Ed Fast and Michelle Rempel Garner. But he did make Leslyn Lewis his infrastructure critic, despite her stridently anti-abortion stance and bizarre conspiracy theories about the World Economic Forum; theories that Poilievre seems to share. If elected, he says that none of his cabinet ministers would be allowed to attend the WEF. And the CPC’s new civil liberties critic is none other than Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu. Gladu was an early and vociferous opponent of the Trudeau government’s masking and vaccination mandates. Like Alberta’s new premier, Gladu seems to think that it is more important to have the right to say no to a prudent public health measure than it is to save thousands of lives during a deadly pandemic. Talk about looking through the wrong end of the telescope. The perennial problem of the CPC is that it keeps hoping Canadians will see the light of far-right politics, the way a broad swath of Americans have rallied to the cause of a liar, a cheat, and a twice-impeached one-term president. But beyond Donald Trump’s thinly disguised fascist rants, there are no ideas, just edicts about all the people he is going to ice. Trumpism is a policy wasteland of ego liberation and warmed up Reaganomics. The CPC continues to serve up the same buffet of leftovers from the Harper era that eventually led to its demise and multiple subsequent defeats: smaller government, tax cuts, and an environmental policy that would make fossil fools of us all. Three times now, the party has misread the country, inspired no doubt by the persistence of the MAGA movement, and the enduring power of the Big Lie based on craven members of the Republican Party who would sell their souls for power. There is no such critical mass of sellouts in this country to duplicate the institutional train-wreck that is happening south of the border. If Pierre Poilievre wants to win a federal election in Canada, he will have to persuade voters that he has something to offer that would make a material difference in their lives. That will require a little less partisan posturing, and a lot more rational persuasion. Poilievre moans and groans about inflation, as we all do. But how would he make a global phenomenon go away? By firing a few mucky-mucks at the Bank of Canada; getting into crypto-currency; and banning his cabinet ministers from international forums, where he believes Batman plots are being hatched? That might go down in Texas and Florida as sound thinking, but in a place like Canada, which remains a rational platform for public debate, it is a losing proposition. Likewise, with Poilievre’s rants about the terrible shape of the economy. He can try all he wants to delude the public that this is a made-in-Canada problem, that it is all Trudeau’s fault. Someone should tell the new Conservative leader that people don’t spend all of their time watching his YouTube channel. They also watch the news. And the news tells them that Europe is already in a recession, the British pound is crashing, and most economists are predicting a serious recession in the United States. There are no exemptions from that reality. The news tells them that there is a savage war raging in Ukraine that has had a profound effect on gasoline and food prices. If Poilievre has a way of fixing the disruption in the supply chain that no one else has been able to figure out, he should share his secret sauce. Otherwise, spare us all the political BS. No wonder American far-right radio host Alex Jones has joined Stephen Harper in endorsing Skippy for PM. Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist. The Hill Times