The NDP’s strategic dilemma

Federal New Democrats should view the partition of Poland in the 18th century as a cautionary tale. For those of you not up on your European history, let me explain: In the late 1700s, Poland was progressively carved up by its rivals—Austria, Russia, and Prussia—until nothing was left of the once-powerful country. Poland basically disappeared off the map, not returning for more than 100 years. So, what does this have to do with Canada’s NDP? As I observe today’s political landscape, it leads me to think the Conservatives, the Liberals, and the Bloc Québécois could each slowly but surely whittle away at the NDP’s base, until it vanishes from the map. Yes, that might come across as an “out there” theory, but just consider the metamorphosis the NDP has undergone over the past 15 years. Recall that in the early 2000s, under the leadership of Jack Layton, the NDP modernized its image by diluting its socialist rhetoric, distancing itself from big unions, and downplaying left-wing populism. These changes, combined with Layton’s charismatic leadership-style, seemed to pay quick dividends as the new-look NDP unexpectedly soared in the 2011 federal election, leap-frogging over the Liberals to become the Official Opposition. Suddenly, the NDP, cut away from its traditional ideological leftist, working-class moorings, seemed to have more mainstream appeal. While this provided the NDP with an opportunity to grow, it also presented a risk. After all, a more mainstream NDP could poach voters from other parties, but the reverse was also true; other parties could now more easily poach votes away from the NDP. When Jack Layton, who passed away 11 years ago this month, took the helm of the NDP, he made it a more palatable choice for voters wary of socialism, writes Nicholls. The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster And this is where my Poland analogy comes into play. Thanks in part to the lacklustre leadership of Layton’s successors, Thomas Mulcair and Jagmeet Singh, other parties have indeed been cutting away at the NDP’s base. Most obviously, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party has positioned itself as the true champion of Canada’s left-leaning, progressive, cosmopolitan urban voters. In other words, Trudeau is clearly fishing for votes in the NDP’s pond. Meanwhile, on the other end of the ideological spectrum, the Conservatives are seemingly intent on stealing away another segment of the NDP’s base: its populist, working-class constituency. As a matter of fact, in the recent Ontario election, Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford made an explicit appeal to the province’s unionized workers, saying, “I'll tell you, our families, be it my dad or my brother Rob...we've supported the hard-working women and men in this province, the union members. We always have. I love 'em." It seemed to work, as Ford not only won the endorsement of several private sector unions, but also made electoral gains in working class ridings. Needless to say, Ford’s gain was the Ontario NDP’s loss. At any rate, no matter who ends up winning the Conservative leadership race, watch for the federal party to likewise go after NDP votes in the next federal election. This will be especially true if the populist-minded Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre ends up winning the Tory crown. Finally, the Bloc Québécois is also in an excellent position to ingest whatever remains of NDP support in Quebec. After all, left-wing voters in Quebec tend to be nationalistic, and no matter how hard it tries, there’s no way the federal NDP can ever match the Bloc’s nationalist messaging. So that in a nutshell is the NDP’s current strategic dilemma; it finds itself under siege from all sides. The party’s leadership will have to find a way out of this trap, lest it end up like Poland, and fall off the map completely. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times