In dangerous times, we need bold defence decisions

The events since the Feb. 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the greatest upheaval to the structure of global security and economic stability since the Second World War. Whatever the outcome of the current war in Ukraine, Russian strongman Vladimir Putin will have even greater grievances with the western allies. With Putin’s iron grip on power reinforced by constitutional changes in 2020 allowing him to serve as president until 2036, we can be rest assured there is more trouble to come. But how is Canada handling the situation so far? In March, the federal government promised to boost Canada’s 540 troops in Latvia and 200, formerly in Ukraine, with a 120-person strong M777 artillery battery and a 25-member electronic warfare troop. Another Halifax class frigate was sent along with a CP-140 maritime patrol plane, and five CF-18 jets. Yet, with an emboldened Russian autocrat focused on imperial conquest, Canadians, through our membership in the 30-country NATO alliance and other transatlantic and global institutions, must deeply appreciate the confrontation thrust upon us and take additional robust action. Such is the precariousness of our times that Germany’s left-wing government announced last month it is boosting its military spending from 53-billion euros in 2021 to 100-billion euros in 2022, abandoning decades of timidity in the process. Announcements of F-35s and missile defence systems shortly followed. There is now an urgency across all NATO members to increase their military funding and capability to meet the threat that can no longer be ignored. Canada recently signalled that it is considering “aggressive options” to boost defence spending in the upcoming federal budget. In ranking 27th out of 30 NATO countries in capital spending, a significant commitment is indeed necessary. While increasing defence spending is a traditional redress to security concerns, more spending alone will not address the dire situation before us: a declared risk of nuclear war, destabilization and threats on NATO’s eastern flank for the foreseeable future, Belarus potentially joining the war, and old Cold War Arctic bases in Russia being rebuilt. So how can Canada position itself against such a hostile regime for the near future? Four solutions stand out. First, Canada must immediately join the U.S. continental ballistic missile defence (BMD) program. Paul Martin’s reticence in 2005, when Iran and North Korea were the biggest threats to North America, no longer applies. Active in Russian deterrence and with military support to Ukraine since 2015, any attack on NATO will see Canada near the top of the target list. Joining ballistic missile defence will include Canada in an inbound missile interception capability, keeping Canadians safer at the stroke of a pen. Second, the North Warning System radars, built in the latter years of the Cold War to detect Russian bombers, are obsolete and unable to cover our northern archipelago. The radars are largely set on the mainland and permit Russian bombers to fly at least 1,100 km over Canadian territory unobserved. Moreover, the latest Russian cruise missile, the Kh-101/Kh-102, can be released by the bombers and pass through these radars undetected to strike targets across North America. The longstanding U.S. nuclear deterrent is greatly undermined by such weapons. Furthermore, the insidious dual nature of these missiles means it is impossible to know if they are carrying a nuclear or conventional warheads until they explode. Third, while the Department of National Defence is assembling new capability and spending plans, the federal government should accelerate a final report before the end of the parliamentary session that identifies all capabilities required for North American defence and eastern European deterrence from Russian threats so procurement can start. The announcement last week on new F-35s is heartening, but the 88 aircraft had been budgeted for years. Finally, in order to translate an increased military budget into actual capability quickly, “Urgent Operational Requirements,” successfully used to equip the Canadian Armed Forces at the height of combat operations in Afghanistan, should be used for all capabilities required to counter Russian aggression in Europe and at home. There is too much at stake for the Government of Canada to undertake its usual, and lengthy, procurement process. The actions of Vladimir Putin show few bounds. We must get ready, quickly. Gray Shanahan was a senior adviser to the associate minister of National Defence and minister of Public Works and Government Services in the Harper government. Jeffrey F. Collins is a fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. The Hill Times