Canada should back Ukraine no-fly zone request

A number of assertions, if not conclusions, have emerged after three weeks of war in Ukraine, including about the action of the countries directly and indirectly involved. These include: The performance of the Russian military has been less than expected. The political unity of the Ukrainian leadership and people, along with the performance of its military forces, has been greater than anticipated. The political and military unity of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union, and allied countries has become greater and more effective in the aftermath of the Russian invasion. Significant western military equipment and economic assistance to Ukraine has played a strong factor in its ongoing and successful efforts, so far, to delay and limit Russian political and military control of the country. Political and economic sanctions imposed against Russia and Belarus will take considerably more time to influence Russian policy. Russian action has garnered exceptional worldwide condemnation including a large vote within the United Nations General Assembly recognizing that the invasion is contrary to the UN Charter. Russian action was prompted by earlier successes in Chechnya, Georgia, and the Donbas and Crimea regions of Ukraine, as well as support for the government of Syria in its ongoing civil war. In the meantime, the war continues to generate widespread death and destruction, with millions of refugees seeking assistance from neighbouring countries. There are no signs Russian determination for militarily domination of the country and regime change in Kyiv has been affected by NATO's actions. The inevitability of Russian success in Ukraine is now well underway and existing policies by NATO will not change the military's slow grind through the neighbouring country. In these circumstances, it is now time for NATO to change its approach and offer Ukraine direct military assistance in countering the Russian invasion. At the very top of the agenda for NATO's direct military assistance is a request by Ukraine's government for a “no-fly zone” for Russian aircraft over its country. There are many reasons against NATO taking this action, and these are not without significance. The key is the concern such action would enlarge the war to one where NATO forces would directly engage the forces of Russia. However, the prospects are increasingly certain that without direct military action by NATO, Russian forces will be at the borders of several more member countries. In these circumstances and given the increasing likelihood the war in Ukraine will become one of a “forever” insurgency, NATO and its members will be engaged in an ongoing nasty war of attrition for years to come. The Russian adventurism in Ukraine will not end there. It is not alarmism to suggest there are other locations—including the three Baltic states, along with Finland—that would be subject to increasing Russian pressure to adapt and adjust to its specific demands. Increasingly, more Russian forces on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia will carry large dangers that would be attenuated by direct military support for Ukraine. There are good reasons for such action now. Ukraine has formally requested this support from NATO and has on several occasions reiterated its expectation for full membership in the military alliance. NATO could declare the Russian invasion and the Ukrainian requests as establishing a de facto membership. The declaration of a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine and a willingness to provide for its enforcement is not a perfect answer. But there are few such answers left—other than full war—and a declaration now would re-enforce the willingness of Ukrainians to fight. Equally it would create some measure of caution, and possibly alarm, in Moscow that this is no longer 2008 and 2014 when its actions in Georgia and the Donbas largely went uncontested. The political and economic sanctions against Russia so far have been unique, but in a gunfight they do not provide the needed protection. American action to counter the Soviet efforts to have nuclear missiles removed from Cuba in 1963 and the united efforts by a broad coalition of countries to deal with the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990 still stand as unique monuments for the enforcement of post-Second World War political arrangements. In both cases, the threat and actual military countering action created the necessary reversals of policy for foreign adventures. Central to our common futures is the territorial integrity of all countries. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an exceptional attack on those arrangements. Canada should initiate changes in NATO policy by publicly supporting the “no-fly zone” as Ukraine has requested NATO to do. A resolution by the House of Commons would be an appropriate vehicle to do this. When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy evoked the famous English writer William Shakespeare in the British Parliament a few days ago, he was speaking for all of us. Answering Shakespeare's question, he said “to be” is the motto to live by, while “not to be” is completely contrary to the world we want. Sometimes, we need dramatic steps through “actors” who represent us on the world stage to combat a nasty, ugly invasion. Gar Pardy is retired from the foreign service and comments on issues of public policy from Ottawa. His latest book China in a Changing World is available online and from Books on Beechwood in Ottawa. The Hill Times