Russia, China testing American commitments to the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan

The United States is intimately involved in the ongoing foreplay of war in the Ukraine and Taiwan. In both situations the Americans have historic political and legal obligations to provide assistance should Russia or China decide on an actual military invasion. Canada, along with other allies, have similar political obligations. In the meantime, the United States, along with several allies, has countered the threats with words and actions illustrating the consequences of invasions. In the 75 years since the Second World War, the United States has dominated geopolitical developments throughout the world. It provided coherence of policy and resources in creating the promises of a liberal international order as outlined in the 1941 Atlantic Charter. These principles—self-determination for all people, no territorial change by force, and self-government—became the bedrock on which the independence of the nation state and the freedom and security of all peoples flourished. The universe at the time consisted of 52 countries, battered by a world-wide war and first use of nuclear weapons, met in London in 1945 and agreed to those Charter principles. Today, that universe is nearing 200 countries and more will come. Every member of the United Nations commits to these principles and, not to do so, undermines and erodes the very essence of today’s international order. The Atlantic Charter and membership in the United Nations are useful memes around which to give coherence to the threats of war in Ukraine and Taiwan. Ukraine was an original member of the United Nations in 1945 along with Belarus, demanded by the Soviet Union to bulk up support in the new organization. Today, Russia argues Ukraine does not have the attributes of UN membership but is inherently part of its national territory. Most of the world disagrees. On the other side of the world, China insists Taiwan is inherently and politically a part of its historic national territory and does not have the attributes for UN membership. In the world since 1945, most countries have legally agreed with Beijing but politically have acted otherwise. For several decades, Taiwan, ironically, argued it was the government for all of China and only recently that piece of fiction has disappeared. Now, the issue is whether or not China’s assertions, ignoring a decision by the people of Taiwan, is valid or politically acceptable. The value of American commitments and those of its allies, including Canada, to the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan is what is being tested by Russia and China. The United States political system has been battered by a series of lost and inconclusive wars. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan have imposed the heaviest of demands on the country and its people, so much so, it has energized discussion of the collapse of its political system. In spite of these military “losses,” the commitment of the United States to the principles of the Atlantic Charter and the United Nations has been fundamental to the success of the global order from the ashes of the Second World War. Ironically, it is that success that created the Russia and China of today and their ability to challenge the United States. It is no accident the two countries, dominating Europe and Asia, with their continental unity and successful prolonged leadership have come together to create a common threat to the American global hegemon. The question of co-ordination between Russia and China is still adrift but it is of little consequence as the effect of their threats of war in the Ukraine and Taiwan creates the largest threat to the United States and its allies since 1945. The success of the global order is a counterpoint to the disarray of the American domestic order. The Trumpian years, when the fundamentals of American hegemony were attacked and undermined, created today’s crises. Sadly, the four years of disorder by the former president has not ended. The continuation of Putin and Xi leaderships into an unknown future are elements in their creation of the present crises. They both see a value in the crises to their continuing success. But that value could be undermined should the crisis go beyond the iteration of demands and require the actual use of their militaries. The success of both leaders would be eroded as the borscht and rice bowls of their people emptied. The Americans have frequently used war as a rallying cry out of domestic political difficulties. Their political system that provides its military with about 40 per cent of the world’s military expenditures, suggests the temptation to do so is always there. Hesitations by the leaders of the three countries central to the present crises leads to the conclusion there is a considerable amount of bluffing. Hopefully, the reliable standby of negotiations and diplomacy will succeed, and come spring, the threat of war will have receded. Then, the world can return to the serious problems of a raging virus and climate change. Gar Pardy is retired from the foreign services and his latest book China in a Changing World is available online and from Books on Beechwood in Ottawa. The Hill Times

Russia, China testing American commitments to the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan

The value of American commitments and those of its allies, including Canada, to the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan is what is being tested by Russia and China.

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Russia, China testing American commitments to the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan

The value of American commitments and those of its allies, including Canada, to the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan is what is being tested by Russia and China.

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