Under Joly, Canada continues wait-and-see foreign policy approach with China

Like Europe, in Asia talk of war is evident and the predictions are as dire as those assessing Ukraine's future with Russia moving troops to the border. In Asia, the future status of Taiwan is the issue of consequence. Beijing has grown louder in its many iterations of the long-standing goal of seeing the island reintegrated. The post-1949 rhetoric has returned but so far, we are still in the period of iteration and while military capabilities for both the island and the mainland have increased significantly, there are few signs an invasion is under active consideration or even likely. But there can be no expectation this “holy grail” of China’s policy will disappear in either the near or long term. Significantly, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has ended its massive daily excursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. These were daily elements in China’s policy for reunification. But these large aerial excursions were political not military reminders for the people of China, the region, and the world that Taiwan remains unfinished business. The ending of the recent bellicosity probably reflects Chinese President Xi Jinping's efforts to manage a trouble-free reconfirmation of a third term. There are, however, regional and global indications this policy reiteration assumes an invasion of Taiwan is more possible today than at any time in the last 73 years. The military posture and capabilities of China today are significantly advanced from the days of occasional artillery exchanges across Taiwan Strait. Equally, the status and capabilities of Taiwan have also undergone significant changes. Taiwan, for most of the world, is a de facto independent state lacking de jure status to which most would agree it deserves. But the historical decisions made by most countries in the post-1949 period, including those of Canada, the United States, and most of Western Europe to provide China with its appropriate international status haunts the emergence of de jure status for Taiwan. The result is one of the world’s most anomalous country. Democratic, economically successful, culturally united, and with the world’s most important semiconductor company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, whose output are in billions of the world’s electronic products. But it is barred from appropriate international status by the heavy hand of economic blackmail by Beijing. Nevertheless, it shares with Beijing much the same policy with respect to the East and South China Seas. This will not change. The economic influence of China globally continues to temper the inclinations of the United States, its allies in the region (Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines) and more generally throughout the world. In large measure, that tempering is driven by the uncertainty of American policy and the commitments reflected in its previous security guarantees. The Obama Asian “policy pivot” of 2015 saw one leg still mired in the historical ties to Europe and the Middle East and, the pivot, was largely vitiated by the words and actions of Donald Trump. The legacy of the former U.S. president, continues to undermine the emergence of coherent security and economic policies by the United States and others for the region. Canada, as with most countries, has adopted a wait and see approach on specific policies towards China and Asia. Although it has signed on to the nonsense associated with now calling the region “Indo-Pacific,” that, in and of itself, is of little value, as India is hardly relevant on major security issues in the region, given its ongoing border issues with China and Pakistan. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly recently stated she will provide details on a “new strategy” for the “Indo-Pacific” in the coming weeks and months. Mindlessly, she said: “There’s a growing influence of China in the world, and every single country needs to what their relationship will be.” Such comments are akin to trying to swim in the sands of the Sahara. Nothing of any value will emerge even though other ministers have indicated that we will be trying to lessen the importance of our exports to China, now our second largest destination. The news is so thin, there is even an effort to suggest the appointment of the prime minister's new national security adviser, Jody Thomas, with “hawkish” views on China, is of some importance. In the meantime, in the absence of policy, the Americans have sought to create the illusion of action with various groupings such as an Anglo-Saxon security triad to provide Australia with “nuclear powered submarines” in about three decades. There is also an attempt to re-energize the 15-year-old Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad)—United States, Australia, India, and Japan—providing a “shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific” and “a maritime order in the East and South China seas” based upon internationally agreed rules. There have also been extensive bilateral meetings with the countries sharing the East and South China seas. Tragically, Trump’s decision to abandon the Trans-Pacific Partnership eliminated the one initiative of common interest to all the countries of the region. In the meantime, China’s economic and military ties with Russia and Pakistan, its support for North Korea and its various economic and political initiatives involving most countries continues to expand. There are bumps in these efforts but nothing so far suggests there is any serious opposition to its geopolitical and economic objective of surpassing the United States. Next year, a third term for President Xi will be confirmed. In the meantime, the rest of the world waits patiently for the United States to narrow its domestic divides and maybe emerge as the dominant global leader it once was. Gar Pardy is retired from the foreign services and his latest book China in a Changing World is available online and from Books on Beechwood in Ottawa. The Hill Times

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Under Joly, Canada continues wait-and-see foreign policy approach with China

Beijing has grown louder in its long-standing goal of seeing the Taiwan reintegrated, while China's economic influence globally continues to temper the inclinations of the United States and others in the region.

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