COVID, not diplomatic boycott, is the real threat to Beijing games

OTTAWA—Last week, the federal government announced it would join other nations like Great Britain, the United States, and Australia in participating in a diplomatic boycott of Beijing 2022. The value of this boycott is purely symbolic and does cause some attention to be brought to the various complaints made about how China behaves at home and abroad. However, among all potential choices available, it's the weakest in terms of sending a message to China. China responded to Canada’s and the other nations’ diplomatic boycott announcements by saying there would be consequences. They did not spell out what precisely they would be. China also chastised Canada for lecturing them about domestic human rights abuses, and cited Canada’s record with Indigenous peoples. Let us talk realities of government representatives not attending an Olympics. First, some context. In August of 2016, I had the honour of attending the Rio games as a sports administrator of one of competing teams, the eventual bronze medal Canadian women’s rugby team. Because we were medal contenders, we were very fortune to have then-governor general David Johnston and his great wife, Sharon, along with the excellent then-minister of sport, Carla Qualtrough, take in our games. At the rugby events, we also had the President of Fiji, Princess Anne, and Prince Albert of Monaco. For our athletes, this was an opportunity to showcase the best of Canada in front of some important influencers. For the luminaries, it was not only the chance to take in sport, but to socialize and do business with peers. For the host Brazilian government, it was an occasion to showcase their country and look to strengthen or establish relationships that could be beneficial for them. The Chinese are much more economically and cultural powerful than the Brazilians. However, they are always in search of legitimacy and validation, but have proven they can get on without western fawning. While the Chinese would have loved the visual imagery of global luminaries enjoying themselves in Beijing, they still today have the most crucial element of any games: attendance of the best athletes in the world. Short of the best athletes not attending, Olympic broadcasters turning off their cameras, and/or the International Olympic Committee cancelling the games, the Chinese have a major propaganda win on their hands. With the greatest respect to our current Governor General Mary Simon, her non-attendance at the games will have no impact on the global narrative China will strike. Now, if sports stars like Conor McDavid or Sidney Crosby weren’t in, that would diminish the event. And of course, there is no concern that the IOC will do what the Women’s Tennis Association did, banning tournaments in China after a top Chinese tennis player briefly mysteriously disappeared after posting a sexual assault allegation against a senior Chinese government official. The Olympics are the major cash cow for the IOC; moral global leadership is less important. Ironically, the greatest immediate threat to Beijing is not the posturing of other nations, it is the prevalence of the Omicron variant. Various reports have now stated that if athletes test positive for COVID-19 at the games they will be required to quarantine in country for three to five weeks. That alone may dissuade top performers, particularly the professional hockey players, and make them reconsider their attendance. More Omicron management measures might be required if this variant of concern continues along its current path. If COVID derails Beijing, the less charitable will ascribe the blame to karma. Others can argue if the virus does geopolitical discrimination, I think not. Nonetheless, if COVID collapses the competition, China will be temporarily deflated. Right now, the diplomatic boycotts of various nations are minor bruises which will dissipate long before the flame is lit at the opening ceremonies. China’s fiercest current competition is against COVID-19, a force more pervasive than soft western diplomacy. Tim Powers is vice-chairman of Summa Strategies and managing director of Abacus Data. He is a former adviser to Conservative political leaders. The Hill Times