Canada is still a middle power: someone should tell the prime minister

As we approach six months since U.S. President Joe Biden’s inauguration—what Canadian leaders thought would be a watershed moment for Canada on the international stage—it is worth asking ourselves what, if anything, has changed? The unpredictable and often short-tempered president Donald Trump has been replaced with a career politician that many Canadians believed would prioritize a healthy Canada-U.S. relationship. Despite the welcoming optimism, Biden has been anything but easy on Canada so far. Almost immediately, he revoked the Keystone XL pipeline permit. Since then, he’s continued to levy tariffs on Canadian solar products, continued to fight Canada on both softwood lumber and dairy, and refused to get involved in the cross-border Line 5 pipeline dispute despite Canada’s repeated requests. Sure, Biden isn’t quite threatening to rip apart landmark free trade agreements or levying steel and aluminum tariffs on dubious national security grounds, but this is clearly no walk in the park for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team. The question no one seems to be asking is whether this chill in Canada-U.S. relations is a one-off or just the latest example of Trudeau’s approach to trade and foreign policy. In the most recent annual Canadian Foreign Policy Journal report card, Trudeau received a D+ on diplomacy. The authors cite “the simple reason that this government has failed to provide any strategic guidance on foreign policy since 2015.” Therein lies the rub. In order to be a true middle power, you must be willing to meddle. Throughout the Trudeau tenure, Canada’s forays into diplomacy have been defined by other actors. A large part of the mandate was spent renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement on Trump’s insistence. Another large portion was spent attempting to get other powers to donate their domestically made vaccines or personal protective equipment to Canada, neither which produced results at the time. Pre-pandemic, Canada attempted to carve out a path to the United Nation’s Security Council but lost to Ireland and Norway for a number of reasons, including a smaller-than-desired presence in both peacekeeping supports and foreign aid than its competitors. On China, Canada stands in the middle of a U.S.-China standoff while the number of days Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor sit in Chinese custody stands at more than 920 and counting. In a recent Ryerson University forum, Trudeau said, on this issue, he was practicing “quiet diplomacy,” which may better yet be described as silent diplomacy. Clearly, whether it is Trump or Biden, China or the United Nations, the current approach is not working. If Canada is truly interested in exporting its values or its products globally, it needs to do a better job of making friends and adding value internationally. This is what makes Trudeau’s latest foray into the international arena all the more confusing. In an effort to do something about youth vaping, the Trudeau government is bringing in Nicotine Concentration in Vaping Products Regulations, effectively cutting the amount of nicotine in vapes by two-thirds. I take no issue with that policy objective but, in doing so, Trudeau is overriding long-standing World Trade Organization (WTO) sanctioned notification periods on regulatory changes that impact trade, moving from the well-established six months to just 15 days. The Canadian, Ontario, and Quebec Chambers of Commerce penned a joint letter alongside the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters warning that this “establishes a troubling precedent that our trading partners have taken note of.” If Canada is to be a global example of democracy, fairness, and ethics, it needs to not just play by the rules but help enforce them abroad. How can we, as a country, expect an international body like the WTO to rule in our favour on lumber or dairy when we fail to follow their rules on something as simple as notification periods? Canada needs to think strategically about its place on the world stage and how to rehabilitate its image as a middle power worth listening to. There are two ways Canada can reassert itself: it can become more important or, importantly, be more becoming. To the first end, Canada can grow its economic and therefore international weight. Canada is a G7 country despite being the world’s 10th largest economy. If Canada emerges from COVID-19 committed to growing its way out of historic borrowing and truly rehabilitating its stagnant domestic industries, like its manufacturing and resources sectors, Canada will require more trading partners and more serious consideration globally. Second, Canada can take charge among middle powers, forcing its way into important conversations around the world by being truly committed to the ideals it often verbalizes. Canada can get more involved in peacekeeping, help impoverished nations with vaccine procurement and distribution, and take more established pro-democratic positions on emerging conflicts. In essence, Canada can either do its best to be invited to the big kids table or decide to pull up its own chair. Either path works and, frankly, both can be pursued simultaneously. The key is to develop a real strategy and pursue it. The current approach of hoping that Biden will save us a seat clearly isn’t working. Mitchell Davidson is a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. The Hill Times

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Canada is still a middle power: someone should tell the prime minister

Canada can either do its best to be invited to the big kids table or decide to pull up its own chair. Either path works and, frankly, both can be pursued simultaneously.

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