The NDP’s disadvantage

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Anyone wanting to handicap the NDP’s chances in the next federal election, should bear in mind what I’d call the party’s polling disadvantage. That’s to say, both the Liberals and Conservatives can probably outdo the NDP when it comes to consistently and effectively gauging public opinion. Of course, I might be wrong about this, but since the NDP has regularly trailed the other parties when it comes to fundraising, it seems to follow logically that it’ll lack the financial resources needed to commission as many polls as the other parties. Polling, remember, can be an extremely expensive endeavour. But at the end of the day, it’s worth it. After all, the more accurate polling data a political party possesses, the more likely it is to craft a winning campaign message. Indeed, political parties typically test everything they plan to do with rigorous polling analysis. Take for example, the Liberal government’s idea of using the slogan “Build Back Better” to help sell its pandemic economic recovery plan. This idea didn’t just pop into somebody’s head at a Liberal strategy meeting, whereupon everybody immediately said, “Hey, that sounds good, let’s go with that, let’s go with ‘Build Back Better’.” It just doesn’t work that way. As a matter of fact, according to media reports, the Liberals tested that slogan, along with other slogans, to measure its appeal. For instance, one slogan proposal that was tested, “We Need A new Green Deal” was rejected by the Liberals because their polling research showed it was perceived as too anti-Alberta and it also reminded respondents of the Great Depression and of the Green Party. Hence, had the Liberals gone with “We Need a New Green Deal," they might have alienated voters. So yes, polling matters. Meanwhile, you better believe the Conservatives are also doing lots of polling. I saw news item a few days ago which reported the Conservative Party election platform will likely include promises to recover a million jobs over the next year, to enact new anti-corruption laws and to balance the budget over the next decade. Now I’m not privy to the inner workings of the Conservative Party, but nevertheless I can still confidently guarantee you that everything associated with those promises came about as a result of polling. In fact, I suspect the Conservative pollster asked Canadians an open-ended question along the lines of “What do you think is the biggest problem facing the country? To which, I’m guessing, the respondents replied, unemployment, government corruption, and massive deficits. And that’s how the Conservatives came up with their plan. At any rate, my point is, the Conservatives and the Liberals have the resources to splurge on such polling, which likely isn't the case for the more cash-strapped New Democrats. Of course, I don’t want to exaggerate their dilemma. The NDP can afford to do some polling, and if those polls are carefully crafted and properly interpreted, the party can still manage to piece together a communication strategy that resonates with voters. Yet, the real problem for the NDP might occur after an election is called, which will usher in a period when public attitudes and opinions can sometimes change quickly and dramatically. This is why, when an election is underway, political parties will usually ramp up their polling efforts, so they can track any changing attitudes and then quickly fine tune their strategy accordingly. If the New Democrats can’t afford to undertake such rapid polling, they’ll basically be flying partially blind. In a sense, the NDP might be playing the game short-handed. Doesn’t mean they can’t score, but it’ll be much more difficult. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times

The NDP’s disadvantage

The NDP can afford to do some polling, and if those polls are carefully crafted and properly interpreted, the party can still manage to piece together a communication strategy that resonates with voters.

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The NDP’s disadvantage

The NDP can afford to do some polling, and if those polls are carefully crafted and properly interpreted, the party can still manage to piece together a communication strategy that resonates with voters.

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