It’s time to Trump-proof Canada’s foreign policy

That sound you heard all across Ottawa on Jan. 20 was a deep sigh of relief from hundreds of politicians, staffers, and public servants, all happy to see the tail end of the Trump administration. With Joe Biden now in the Oval Office, Canadian decision-makers may assume that Canada-U.S. relations can return to the status quo. This would be a mistake. Canada must absorb the lessons of the Trump era by developing a more proactive relationship with the United States, starting by mitigating three issues that helped Trump and the Republican Party win power. Canada must not ignore the fact that Trump and the Republican Party remains politically competitive. More than 74 million Americans voted for Trump in the 2020 election. Trump loyalists have quietly taken control of congressional caucuses, state parties, and political action committees. As a result, the Republican Party has now adopted a distinctly Trumpian mentality. Trump’s 2020 campaign was merely a retread of his 2016 message, emphasizing that America’s southern border was a mess; that the world was taking advantage of the U.S.; and that free trade was a disaster. Bereft of new policies and ideas, Republicans may view that the simplest path back to power is to repeat this Trumpian message in future elections. This message might resonate amongst Americans again should the Biden administration fail to resolve several overarching issues. If the migration crisis along the southern border with Mexico continues, Republicans will use this opportunity to promote harsher immigration policies and more wall-building. Should the U.S. continue to assume the financial burden of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Republicans will continue to promote the ideas of isolationism and neutrality. Should Biden’s financial recovery package proposed fail to help economically depressed areas like Ohio and Michigan, then Republicans once again may again rally around the policies of further tariffs and renegotiating trade agreements. The political appeal of a renewed Trumpian message could result in a Republican majority in the House or Senate in 2022, and quite possibly Trump himself returning to the Oval Office in 2024. To prevent a return to the social, economic, and political chaos that has defined the Canada-U.S. relationship over the past four years, Canada should take three steps to ensure that these issues cannot be exploited by Republicans in future elections. Border issues: Border issues will continue to loom large in American politics over the next four years. Tens of thousands of migrants from Mexico and Central America, are arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border, fleeing poverty, violence, and political persecution in their home countries. To deal with this humanitarian crisis, the Biden administration has proposed a four-year, $4-billion regional strategy to address the factors driving migration from Central America. Focusing on the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, this funding would prioritize poverty reduction and economic development while improving civil society in the region. Canada should develop its own long-term strategy for the Northern Triangle to complement U.S. efforts in the region. We should continue to build on our humanitarian work already underway in these countries, while increasing our intake of the most vulnerable refugees. Working in conjunction with the U.S. and Mexico, Canada must understand that the humanitarian crisis at the border is a continental issue that affects all three countries. Already we have seen Republicans like Senator Ted Cruz highlighting this as U.S. President Biden’s first policy failure. If the migration crisis continues, it will provide a galvanizing issue for Republicans during the 2022 midterm elections. Defence spending: Despite sounding like loan shark shaking down his client, Trump’s constant refrain that NATO members were failing to live up to their own pledges to spend 2 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defence was in line with what American presidents have been saying for decades. Even President Barack Obama pointedly brought up Canada’s lack of defence spending when he addressed Parliament in 2016. It was Trump’s strong-arm approach, along with his threats to leave the alliance that forced Canada and other NATO countries to increase their spending on defence, although nowhere near the two per cent goal. If Canada and its NATO allies continue to fall short on their spending commitments, it will provide an ample opportunity for Trump or other Republicans to question America’s continuing involvement in the alliance. Should Canada revert to old assumptions about its relationship with the U.S., without committing to share in the financial burden of collective defence, then it merely provides more political ammunition for the isolationist wing of the Republican Party. If we step up to meet our commitments, and work to convince our NATO allies to meet their goals, it will do much to blunt future Republican attacks on the viability of NATO and multilateral alliances. Stronger relationship with U.S. legislators: When Trump threatened to tear up NAFTA, Canadian cabinet ministers, premiers, and consular officials launched a multi-pronged “charm offensive,” connecting with key U.S. politicians during hundreds of meetings to salvage the free trade agreement. This experience was a timely reminder that for most U.S. legislators, Canadian issues rarely appear on their political radar. No more so than in a Republican Party whose internationalist wing, exemplified by luminaries such as former president George H.W. Bush and James Baker, is all but extinct. In the future, Canada must be proactive in outreach to members of Congress. At the start of each congressional session in January, we should invite a bipartisan congressional delegation for a trip up to Ottawa to talk with Canadian legislators, business leaders, and academics about Canada-U.S. issues. This would give members of Congress a deep dive into Canadian politics, renew the importance of bilateralism, and to cultivate more constructive relationships for the future. This trip should not be all meetings, however. If the Rideau Canal is ready, why not a quick skate along the world’s largest skating rink? After all, a little Beavertail diplomacy can go a long way. If the past four years of Donald Trump has taught us anything, it is that we have too often taken our relationship with the U.S. for granted. To prevent another four years of Trumpism, Canadian foreign policy toward the U.S. must be proactive, not reactive. It should place greater importance on educating U.S. legislators on Canadian issues. It must emphasize the values of multilateralism and cooperation. Most importantly, it means that Canada must shoulder its fair share of the costs. The status quo is not good enough anymore. To keep it risks another four years of chaos Stuart MacKay is a historian of the Republican Party, who is currently working on a book about Republicans during the American Civil War. Twitter: @Mackay_Stuart The Hill Times

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It’s time to Trump-proof Canada’s foreign policy

Canada must not ignore the fact that Trump and the Republican Party remain politically competitive. More than 74 million Americans voted for Trump in the 2020 election.

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