U.S. intelligence report warns physical effects of climate change to intensify in next two decades, especially in 2030s

TORONTO—We shouldn’t be surprised that some of the strongest warnings on climate change are coming from the intelligence community. The job of intelligence agencies is to examine and analyze evidence and report their findings objectively, based on this work. The U.S. National Intelligence Council has done exactly that, with a dire warning on climate change as one of the greatest threats facing human society over the next several decades. “Our understanding of climate change has become increasingly strong,” the U.S. National Intelligence Council says in a recent report, "Global Trends 2040," setting out the trends that it sees unfolding over the next several decades. Every decade since the 1960s has been hotter than the previous one and based on the current path, the report warns, “it is probable that within the next 20 years, global warming will surpass 1.5C while heading toward 2C possibly by mid-century.” Holding the rise of the average world temperature to 1.5C was the goal of the Paris Accord on climate change since this was seen as a potential tipping point leading to catastrophic climate change. “The physical effects of climate change are likely to intensify during the next two decades, especially in the 2030s,” the intelligence report warns. “More extreme storms, droughts, and floods; melting glaciers and ice caps; and rising sea levels will accompany rising temperatures. The impact will disproportionately fall on the developing world and poorer regions and intersect with environmental degradation to create new vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing risks to economic prosperity, food, water, health, and energy security.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, pictured March 12, 2021. The Liberal government is making climate a priority yet it is also a supporter of the fossil fuels industry. The Conservative opposition is even more committed to the oil industry while in recent years paying only lip service to the need to address climate change. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade There will be more intense heat waves, and Canada will be hit, based on the report. Summer will become more uncomfortable—and a greater health risk—in cities such as Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa. Outside of the Arctic, “the fastest warming is projected to occur in central and eastern North America, central Europe, the Mediterranean region (including southern Europe, northern Africa and the near East), western and central Asia and southern Africa,” it says. There will also be more extreme weather and weather patterns—more droughts, more floods, stronger hurricanes. But traditional weather patterns will also change. For example, the report warns, “dry areas are expected to become drier, wet areas will become wetter. And precipitation will be less frequent, but more intense in some areas.” As it is, the agricultural belt of the Canadians Prairies and the rich farm land of southwestern Ontario area already prone to drought. Climate protesters pictured on the Hill in Ottawa, Sept. 27, 2019. Population growth over the next two decades, along with rapid urbanization and poor land and resource management 'will increasingly intersect with and exacerbate climate change effects in many countries.' The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia At the same time, population growth over the next two decades, along with rapid urbanization and poor land and resource management “will increasingly intersect with and exacerbate climate change effects in many countries, particularly in the developing world,” the intelligence analysts warn. “The expansion and unsustainable management of agriculture and forestry practices degrade land, and both contribute to and intensify the effects of climate change.” 'Our understanding of climate change has become increasingly strong,' the U.S. National Intelligence Council says in a recent report, 'Global Trends 2040,' setting out the trends that it sees unfolding over the next several decades. Image courtesy of U.S. National Intelligence Council report These and other climate-related risks will all work to erode human security, for example by adding to food and water insecurity as changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, increased extreme weather events and saltwater intrusion into soil and water systems from rising sea levels become more prevalent. These risks, in turn, increase the risk of conflict and competition for scarce resources such as water. The need for rare minerals for electric vehicle batteries and solar energy is another example. There will also be critical risks to human health. “Decreased water, air, and food quality, along with changes to disease vectors and water-borne pathogens all threaten human life,” the intelligence report adds. “Climate change is expected to change the geographic range and in some cases frequency of disease outbreaks affecting humans, animals, and plants, including those that are vector-borne (West Nile, malaria, Dengue), water-borne (cholera), airborne (influenzas, hantavirus) and food-borne (salmonella).” Could the COVID-19 pandemic be a warning? The report also points to the loss of biodiversity, which also carries risks to human well-being. “The variability among all living organisms—known as biodiversity—is declining faster than at any point in human history, risking food and health security and undermining global resilience,” with rising temperatures likely to lead to the extinction of plants and animals and to the spread of invasive species. Much greater migration is another prospect as rising temperatures, extreme weather events and environmental degradation force millions to move, with more of this migration becoming permanent. Some places will become permanently uninhabitable. Climate protesters, pictured in Ottawa, Sept. 27, 2019, on Parliament Hill. There will be a need for unprecedented levels of global cooperation. 'Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to human and national security and force states to make hard choices and trade-offs,' the report concludes. The Hill Times photograph by Sam Garcia To avert a climate disaster, with impacts far worse than the COVID-19 pandemic, governments will have to work much harder to achieve the goal of limiting the average global temperate increase to 1.5C. For example, “limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5C will require unprecedented changes in energy consumption and production to allow developing countries to grow their economies while not offsetting the carbon reductions from developed countries.” There will be a need for unprecedented levels of global cooperation. “Climate change will increasingly exacerbate risks to human and national security and force states to make hard choices and trade-offs,” the report concludes, a big problem in Canada is that at the political level there is insufficient appetite to make “hard choices and trade-offs.” The Liberal government is making climate a priority yet it is also a supporter of the fossil fuels industry. The Conservative opposition is even more committed to the oil industry while in recent years paying only lip service to the need to address climate change. While the world has seen the deadly human, social and economic costs of the pandemic, climate change poses even greater risks over the next two decades, with the most severe consequences for younger Canadians who will face much greater impacts than what we are already experiencing from a warmer world. Sadly, Canadian efforts to have both lower emissions and more oil production trivializes the climate choices we need. Net zero emissions by 2050 is a necessity, not an aspiration, but will take much greater effort, and political leadership, than we have seen so far. David Crane can be reached at crane@interlog.com. The Hill Times