A comprehensive plan for zero GHG emissions by 2050

OTTAWA—Although we are still fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, it is not too early to start attacking the other emergency: climate change resulting from greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Canada’s failure to meet previous GHG reduction targets can be traced to a lack of progressive targets for every emitter. Here, the target GHG reduction for each emitter is specified as a fraction of the amount of the emitter’s own GHG output at the starting date of the plan. A new GHG levy with rebate is proposed as well as an action plan. Part 1: GHG reduction targets for all emitters There are two types of targets: The overall emission target: we know what needs to be done: reduce current GHG output to net zero by 2050. For every emitter, a linear GHG reduction is proposed from the start of 2020 to zero output in 2050, i.e., 30 years hence. This means a yearly reduction of 1/30 0.0333 or 3.33 per cent per year every year, relative to the 2020 GHG output. For a 2022 starting date the yearly GHG reduction would need to be 3.57 per cent of the 2022 emissions. The GHG reduction with respect to time does not need to be linear, but it is the simplest and most direct path to the 2050 target. The intermediate annual target for each emitter: the same annual GHG reduction applies as in (a) to establish the successive annual targets of GHG output. If in any year the output exceeds the target, the deficit will need to be added to the target in the succeeding year. These two types of targets fully complement one another since the sum of all the targets and emissions of all emitters is exactly the same as the overall emission and target for the entire country. It would furthermore apply to any subdivision of emitters such as economic sectors, provinces or other political or economic subdivisions. Part 2: A new GHG levy with rebate Much to the credit of the federal government and the citizens who proposed and lobbied for it, Canada now has in place a fee on GHG emissions. Individuals and families are subject to the “fuel charge“ which is on average refunded annually, whereas companies are subject to the “output-based pricing system“ on an industry sector basis. Neither of the two systems, however, has clear annual targets for each emitter. Without such targets the success of the current GHG reduction program seems questionable. The objective of the new proposed GHG levy is to reduce the emission of GHG into the atmosphere, reward the reduction of these gases by a targeted rebate and steer the whole GHG reduction process towards zero by 2050. Upon expiry of the current carbon fee in 2022, the annual increase of $10 per tonne of CO2-equivalent should be maintained until a new reasonable ceiling is reached. This new GHG levy with rebate should apply to any emitter of GHG throughout the country and be administered by the designated tax department. The amount of rebate for what the emitter has paid in GHG levy should depend on how close the annual GHG reduction has come to meeting the target for that year. The rebate for an emitter would progressively rise to full levy refund for meeting or exceeding the target for that year, minus perhaps a small administration fee. Because of the current uncertainties in the initial year of operation of such a new GHG levy it may be desirable to rebate to each emitter the total levy collected for the initial year of operation. This would permit each emitter to familiarize themselves with this new method and lead to better future outcomes. Any portion of the levy fee not refunded should be applied towards demonstration projects administered by an expert panel. Part 3: The action plan It seems of the utmost importance that the federal government and the provinces and territories agree to cooperate with this plan. The cooperation for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic could serve as a model. The scientific community has warned us, the House of Commons in 2019 has declared a national climate emergency, and the electorate in the 2019 general election expressed strong support for net zero GHG emission by 2050. The Government of Canada, in collaboration with the other levels of government, should now take the following action: Declare the beginning of 2020 (or soon thereafter) to be the start of the GHG reduction plans for Canada, together with 2050 as the year of net zero GHG output into the atmosphere. Every commercial and non-commercial entity needs to reduce its own emission of GHG by at least 3.33 per cent per year every year, starting from 2020, until net-zero output is reached by 2050. For a 2022 starting date, the annual GHG reductions would need to be 3.57 per cent, or even higher for a later start. For each GHG emitter a link would need to be established between the vendor who collects the GHG levy and the emitter’s GHG account at the designated tax department. The annual state of GHG emissions of each emitter is to be reported to the applicable tax department, subject to possible audit, and would qualify for the adjusted GHG levy refund. Summary portions of the yearly GHG emission data should be publically available. Exceedance of the target could be traded or “banked” and applied to future years. If the intermediate targets are not met after a few years, adjustments to the rate of GHG reduction and/or the carbon levy would need to be made towards meeting the 2050 target. It appears that 2022, the end of the current carbon fee, might be a suitable starting date for the new GHG reduction program. This would give reasonable preparation time for the entire procedure. The GHG reduction plan proposed here is relatively simple and fair and should be effective in meeting the 2050 zero GHG emission target for Canada. The need to replace GHG-emitting machinery and products opens an opportunity for more efficient and non-polluting replacements in the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, upgraded houses with better insulation and more efficient appliances should see improved performance and an increase in property value. This plan would allow every emitter to choose its own way of reaching its emission target. For exceptional situations where currently no viable alternatives exist (e.g., aviation, cement manufacture) acceptable compensating measures amounting to the same GHG reduction ratios would need to be negotiated. Government subsidies and incentives should support GHG reduction, innovation, competitiveness and demonstration projects. Tariffs for imports having high GHG emission content will need to be addressed as well as assistance for GHG reduction for developing countries. While not every detail has been dealt with here, the urgency of dealing with climate change due to GHG emission demands a start for systematically reducing GHG output. Once Canada gets its own GHG reduction program in order, it needs to join with other countries to work towards an effective worldwide GHG reduction plan, i.e., a successor to the 2015 Paris Climate Accord. Hans Rainer, PhD (structures), is a retired research officer of the National Research Council of Canada (NRC) in Ottawa, having specialized in earthquake engineering and structural dynamics. After leaving the NRC he consulted to the wood and power industry in British Columbia and returned to Ottawa to pursue his interest in GHG reduction in the atmosphere. The Hill Times