Trumpism could outlast Trump

OAKVILLE, ONT.—One of the things which makes the 2020 American presidential election so odd, is the surge it’s triggered in hypothetical questions. In other words, many political experts watching this race are focusing not so much on what’s happening now, but on what might happen later. For instance, some are wondering whether U.S. President Donald Trump will leave office gracefully if he loses a close vote or if he’ll desperately hang onto power, claiming the election was somehow “rigged," thus setting in motion a constitutional crisis that’ll make the Florida “chad hanging” controversy of 20 years ago seem like a walk in the park. I also have hypothetical questions, but my pondering isn’t focused on the possibility of a losing Trump clinging to power, since, as rash and reckless as the President can certainly be, I would hope even he wouldn't purposely plunge his country into a nightmarish political mess. What does intrigue me, on other hand, is, hypothetically speaking, what might happen to Trump’s political base should he lose a tightly contested race. Keep in mind, Trump didn’t create his base. Rather, it was created by circumstances—economic anxiety, concerns about illegal immigration, disillusionment with political institutions—which existed long before Trump arrived on the political scene. Simply put, millions and millions of Americans were already angry, worried and resentful—Trump’s political success mainly came because he masterfully exploited those existing emotions. So even if Trump were to disappear tomorrow, those emotions will likely endure. And by the way, even if Trump loses the election, I seriously doubt he’ll disappear. Far from it; my guess is, as an ex-president, Trump would continue to propagate his political views all over the media, lashing out against the Democrats, against the media and just generally against Washington “elites.” More seriously, he would also, I predict, foment all sorts of dark conspiracy theories to explain how he was “cheated” out of the presidency. Of course, for the most part, the mainstream media would discount such ravings, but he would, I believe, find a willing and eager audience among his voting base; they would believe Trump’s conspiracy theories because they want to believe them, because they already distrust the Democrats and the media and the elites. And if all this does come to pass, it could have real implications for the future of American politics. For one thing, Trump would keep his base in a constantly agitated and angry state. In fact, its sense of resentment would likely go off the scales. This would mean any hope that the Republican Party would forsake its populist agenda and embrace a more centrist position in a post-Trump age would likely be a false one. If anything, the party might become more radicalized and angrier than ever. Nor would it help that, in an increasingly polarized America, the Democratic Party would likely surge towards the Left, which would only increase the fear factor on the American right. In short, even without a President Trump, Trumpism itself might still thrive. Not a pretty picture if you’re an anti-Trumper. Mind you, this is all just speculation on my part. Nobody truly knows what the future holds. And if it makes anybody feel better, the whole scenario would change if Trump were to lose this November by a landslide. After all, that would at least greatly undermine any possible “Why Trump lost?” conspiracy theories, and it also would likely diminish Trump’s mystique among his base. However, my sense is, it’s going to be a tight race. So, get ready to batten the hatches, things south of the border will likely get mighty interesting. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times