Canada is at a crossroads with existential consequences

It is not hyperbole to suggest that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government find themselves today at a truly historic junction—and Canada’s economic and political future are very much dependent on which policy direction he chooses to pursue. There is no middle ground. He either takes the direction suggested by Greta Thunberg, the 17-year-old climate activist, who has become a global icon and a symbol of real progress for the emerging generations, or he takes the advice of Premiers Jason Kenney, Scott Moe, and their corporate backers—those paragons of “corporate social responsibility”—the oil and gas companies. On the face of it, not a difficult choice: the counsel of a Swedish teenager versus that of a politically powerful lobby ostensibly representing the livelihoods of thousands of citizens in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The problem is that both Kenney and Moe, as well as the political party they represent, are very much driven by short-term electoral considerations and the financial support of an industry that, globally, is beginning to lose its centuries-long grip on public policy. It is being subjected to an inexorable trend; namely the inevitable fall in demand for CO2-producing fuels and a simultaneous shift from a 19th century fossil fuel economy of nations, to a 21st century globalized civilization necessarily dependent on renewable, clean sources of energy, hydrogen and nuclear included. Though accelerated by the uncertainties linked to the coronavirus, today’s continued fall in crude oil prices is part of a new industrial revolution, generated in large part by the battle against climate change and for the preservation of the environment. On the one hand, Kenney, Moe, and the federal Conservative Party, like Donald Trump, strategically seem to have planted their feet firmly in the air (or should I say in the tarsands) denying the science. On the other, the world’s most consequential insurance and reinsurance companies, and some of the largest private equity firms and pension funds, are quickly divesting from oil and gas. At the same time, the major international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank are reconsidering whether they will continue to finance, directly or indirectly, fossil fuel development in emerging economies. In selecting their policy direction, the prime minister and his deputy, Chrystia Freeland, need to act practically, while at the same time doing the right thing for Canadians, including those in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Failure to follow the road laid out by Thunberg and her generation will not only result in the pursuit of a quicksand-based economy in Western Canada and the chimera of short-term gains, but will also shatter Trudeau’s desire to leave a legacy of enlightened leadership, both nationally and internationally. It will also ensure his party’s defeat in the next federal election as the millennial generation and those baby boomers increasingly concerned and personally affected by global warming replace older voters. Rather than succumbing to any short-term rewards of pandering to the fossil fuel industry and the threats of political scare mongers, the Trudeau government should focus on providing a 21st century policy framework for Alberta and Saskatchewan, one that would enable the provinces to wean themselves off a dying industry and, as quickly as possible, transition to a more diversified economy. It should also support the adoption of a new energy system generated by solar, wind, and nuclear, as well as investments in storage systems, batteries, and carbon capture technologies. Thunberg, the global financial sector, and an increasing number of governments have recognized that the current climate crisis is every bit as urgent as a global war. But we currently lack the technological weapons to address the crisis comprehensively, or in a timely manner. Instead of regressing industrially, as Kenney, Moe, and former prime minister Stephen Harper would have us do, provincial and federal funds, in partnership with private investments, need to be poured into the development of scalable, affordable, carbon-free energy sources and storage methods. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan need to be at the heart of the process. Public funds also need to be quickly deployed to provide workers the knowledge, training, and skills critical in ensuring the structural adjustments needed in both provincial economies. The benefits to the two provinces are clear, as they are for the prime minister politically, and for Canada, economically. And so should be the correct turn in the crossroads before him. Joseph Ingram is the chairman of Capitalis Partners, a former president of the North South Institute, and a former World Bank special representative to the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. He is an expert adviser to the Global Growth Dialogue and a fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. The Hill Times