Trudeau’s real job now: sparking national action on a post-carbon future

OTTAWA—Apparently Doug Ford didn’t really mean it when he said in the summer that he would let voters in the federal election decide whether he would continue with Ontario’s costly, and likely futile, legal offensive against Ottawa’s carbon levy. Ford, who was shut out of the less-than-stellar federal Conservative campaign, sounded a bit more co-operative in his initial phone call with re-elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. But after pondering the tax issue for a few days, the Ontario premier said he would stick with the court challenge even though the federal Liberals were voted back in. This came as Blaine Higgs, New Brunswick’s Progressive Conservative premier, broke ranks with other premiers fighting the federal carbon levy, saying voters showed they obviously supported it. Whatever else it proved, the election showed a majority of Canadians want serious action to tackle global warming. But, although the Liberals overcame Trudeau’s troubles to win a strong minority, they were left with what everyone has recognized as a challenge of historic proportions arising from the alienation and anger demonstrated by the Conservative landslide in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Talk of Wexit is far-fetched, but the divisions playing out regionally over Canada's energy future have the potential to spawn long-term tensions and political conflict that could challenge the unity and smooth economic functioning of the country for years—preventing elected leaders from dealing with the pressing needs of a rapidly changing economic and employment picture. Incited by Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe, Prairie residents have been encouraged to see the federal Liberals as a scapegoat for all their problems in the wake of epoch-making shifts in the conditions that propelled economic prosperity in the West for more than a half-century. Among other things, Trudeau was blamed, without foundation, for killing the Energy East and Northern Gateway pipelines that would have offered Alberta better oil export possibilities. And the court challenges to the Trans Mountain extension undertaken by Trudeau are somehow seen as a Liberal failing. Important as it is for Ottawa to open a new dialogue with the West, it seems pretty obvious looking at the larger picture that the tactically focused analysis we’re hearing on what Trudeau might do about this situation is only addressing one very preliminary aspect of the much bigger and longer-term issues facing the country. Although a pillar of the postwar Canadian economy, the oil industry faces fundamental, irreversible global challenges that have nothing to do with the occupant of 24 Sussex or eastern Canadian attitudes. One can debate whether it will take 10 years or 20 years, but drilling innovations, increased world oil supply, and the necessity of moving away from fossil fuels to reduce global warming are combining over time to cripple the economics of petroleum. Building Trans Mountain will provide some short-term economic relief for Alberta’s oil sector, and it’s obvious to all the federal government should rapidly find ways to do more to assuage the economic impact in Alberta and Saskatchewan of the huge economy/energy upheaval being felt around the world. Thanks to Andrew Scheer and his provincial allies in the climate-action-denier crowd, the country is actually in danger of moving in the wrong direction, writes Les Whittington. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade But these are Band-Aids. As demonstrated on Oct. 21, the real problem for Canadians—let alone Trudeau—is the existence of a powerful alliance of right-wing leaders who, for partisan political purposes, are striving to drive up their constituents’ rage over the economic shifts affecting their lives. Instead of leading in the needed generational fight against climate change, Canada has leaders at the federal and provincial level encouraging the public to look backward when the country must instead get moving on the obvious national challenge—need we call it an emergency?—of effectively managing the transition away from fossil fuels. Thanks to Andrew Scheer and his provincial allies in the climate-action-denier crowd, the country is actually in danger of moving in the wrong direction. But voters on Oct. 21 may have at least opened the way for some kind of progress rather than electing Conservatives who, on behalf of the oil giants, want to put off this reckoning as long as possible—increasing the eventual cost of adjustment, guaranteeing higher damage costs from climate change and squandering Canada’s crucial opportunity to adopt to a strong green future economy. What is needed is a long-term, national commitment to move beyond the oil era on a hundred environmental, economic, and technological fronts. But given the country’s regional divisions, polarized politics, and unity risks, managing this major overhaul of the economy will undoubtedly put Canadians’ ingenuity and good will to enormous tests. Trudeau has made an important, compromising start in recognizing that revenues from a new pipeline can help fund the green transition over time. Looking ahead, the Liberals need to focus beyond the day-to-day realities of minority government and try to make a start on building a cross-Canada consensus for urgent change. Les Whittington is a regular columnist for The Hill Times. The Hill Times