Polls say blackface bombshell didn’t shift much, but could still be a game changer

OTTAWA—Campaigns tend to surprise us these days. The 2015 election started with the NDP leading with the Liberals in third. It ended with a Liberal majority propelled by a sharp rise in youth voter turnout. The 2016 U.S. Presidential campaign was Hillary Clinton’s to lose, which she ended up doing thanks to campaign moments that disturbed her momentum and shifted the electorate’s focus. On Sept. 18, only a week into the campaign, stories about photos of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appearing in blackface sent a shockwave throughout country and around the world. According to our Abacus Data poll released on Sept. 23, almost nine in ten Canadians had heard about them—a level of exposure that is so rare these days, as consumer rely more and more on their social media feeds for news and information. But early evidence suggests that the blackface controversy did not fundamentally change public attitudes. While impressions of Trudeau have deteriorated, so too have those of all the party leaders. The Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked in vote intention. Most respondents aware of the story told us it won’t impact their choice come Oct. 21, either because they wouldn’t have voted Liberal anyway, or the other issues are more important to their choice. Abacus Data found that 88 per cent of respondents have been following the blackface/brownface story to some degree. Image courtesy of Abacus Data But even if this didn’t fundamentally change things, it could still be a game changer. Why? Because this election is close. A shift of two or three points in the popular vote away from the Liberals or Conservatives could mean an entirely different outcome. I see at least three ways this campaign moment could shift the trajectory of this election. The most obvious is that it hurts the Liberals. Young voters, and those who identify as a member of a racialized community, are more open to voting Liberal in the first place and could reconsider their choice. They may already be disappointed in Mr. Trudeau, and this confirms their inclinations. Maybe some don’t vote at all, or others vote NDP, or Green. Either way, the Liberals lose support from two key groups, and the Conservatives prevail. But, there’s also a theory that this event could halt Conservative momentum and change the focus of the campaign. There’s evidence from polls that the Conservatives had been gaining in the first few weeks of the campaign. With their relentless focus on affordability, it seemed the party was connecting with its audience and gaining traction. I was even on a Power & Politics panel discussing affordability as a leading issue in the campaign just before the blackface bombshell dropped. Instead of setting the agenda around affordability, the focus has shifted to values, racism, and leadership—battlegrounds on which Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and his party may not have a clear advantage. Despite the embarrassment and damage the photos may have caused Trudeau, it also opens up an opportunity to shift the focus of the campaign to terrain where the Liberals would rather compete. A final scenario is perhaps the least likely to happen, but if it does, may take longer to see in the polls. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh started this campaign as the least known of the four main party leaders. Many Canadians had limited exposure to him and what they did know about him was limited. Singh has been given a new platform to introduce himself to Canadians from a different perspective; the effect is more people listening to what he says and being open to being persuaded by his policies and arguments. If the NDP numbers grow between now and Election Day, it may have less to do with what Justin Trudeau did 20 years ago and more about people being open to hearing what Singh has to say. There’s also a chance this event changes nothing, and the campaign ends where it began – in a stalemate. Nevertheless, there is still almost a month to go in the campaign, and almost half of Canadians haven’t yet really tuned into the campaign. The blackface bombshell may be a game changer for reasons you may not assume. On the other hand, so too could many other moments that might happen between now and October 21. David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data, a national research and strategy firm based in Ottawa. Follow him on Twitter @ColettoD and visit www.abacusdata.ca for the firm’s coverage of the election campaign. The Hill Times

Polls say blackface bombshell didn’t shift much, but could still be a game changer

There are at least three ways this campaign moment could shift the trajectory of the 2019 federal election.

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Polls say blackface bombshell didn’t shift much, but could still be a game changer

There are at least three ways this campaign moment could shift the trajectory of the 2019 federal election.

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