The power of political polling

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Now that Canada Day is in the rear-view mirror and the summer season is finally in full swing, it’s a good time, I think, to have a little fun with Canadian politics. And, yes, I know the words “fun” and “Canadian politics” don’t really belong in the same sentence, but surely we can find some sort of entertainment, right? For instance, it might be amusing to speculate a bit as to the power of political polling. In other words, how much influence do pollsters have when it comes to helping political parties set their respective courses? Mind you, since internal polls are top secret, we can only guess as to what conclusions and recommendations party pollsters—after they analyze “net favourables," study cross tabs, track trends, and otherwise dissect public attitudes—present to their bosses So let’s start by guessing about what recommendations pollsters are offering to the Liberal Party. My strong sense is Liberal pollsters are telling Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that Canadians don’t like his carbon tax idea; in fact, they probably hate it with a passion. Why do I think this? Well, it looks like Trudeau is doing everything he can, of late, to make the tax a little less scary. For example, Liberal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna recently declared that, if re-elected, the Liberals will freeze its carbon tax at $50 per tonne of emissions after 2022. From a strictly policy point of view, this action doesn’t make sense since most experts expect carbon emissions will continue to rise after 2022, meaning, in theory at least, carbon taxes should also rise. As columnist Andrew Coyne noted, “Either the government in which she serves is not as committed to its commitments as we have been led to believe. Or it is retreating from carbon pricing as the means of achieving them.” This action does make sense, however, if Trudeau is listening more to his pollsters than to his climate scientists. Meanwhile, over in the Conservative Party camp, I suspect pollsters have a good news, bad news story for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer. The good news from his pollsters is likely that Scheer is ahead of Trudeau in their polls and that Trudeau’s brand has suffered irreparable damage due to the SNC-Lavalin scandal; the bad news is likely that Scheer’s popularity takes a big dip whenever his name is linked to “radical” policies. Hence, this would explain Scheer’s decision to chart a “moderate” course. He’s against the carbon tax, but he’s also for fighting climate change, he’s for balancing the budget, but he’s in no hurry to balance it, he’s for more immigration, but not too much immigration. Seems to me, Scheer is likely acting on the advice of pollsters who have urged him to be the Goldilocks of Canadian politics—not too hot, not too cold. And finally, we come to the NDP. My suspicion is that whenever NDP pollsters ask Canadians what they think of New Democratic Leader Jagmeet Singh, the answer is “Jagmeet who?”. Essentially, I believe, for most Canadians he’s an unknown quantity, and this is likely reflected in the NDP’s internal polls. So maybe this is why the NDP has been pushing Singh’s ideology instead of his personality. Indeed, the NDP’s recently released platform is chock full of hardcore left-wing items: higher taxes on the “rich” and corporations; expanding Canada’s health-care system; more public housing and a liberalized unemployment insurance system. All promises I’m sure which have been carefully poll-tested. The take-away from all this is that leaders may guide a party, but it’s pollsters who guide the leader. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. The Hill Times