U.S. midterms offer hope for Democrats, but the outlook is anything but certain

WASHINGTON, D.C.—This is a country where a dead brothel owner can still win a seat in the Nevada state legislature. Where mentally troubled people can not only buy guns but have made a habit of shooting numerous innocent bystanders as a way of drawing attention to themselves and their disturbances. Where the president personally endorsed an election ad so blatantly racist that NBC, Facebook, and Fox News, Donald Trump’s favourite network, rejected it. All this was part of the backdrop for the midterm elections in the United States last week. It was in effect the kick-off to the 2020 presidential election, but the result left the outlook for that vote on a second term for President Trump up in the air. The Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives, a major shift in power, and their achievement seems to be getting more impressive by the day as close races get finalized. A substantial House majority now appears likely. But the blue wave that would have served to deliver a resounding defeat for Trump did not materialize in full strength—much to the dismay of all those who wonder how anyone could support this man. Indeed the president, despite his low popularity in the polls, came out of the Nov. 6 vote claiming a victory as the Republicans held onto their majority in the Senate. In an unprecedented move, Trump had thrown himself personally into the midterm campaigning on a nearly full-time basis. Whether he helped Republicans across the board or not is debatable, but there’s reason to think his fear-mongering about immigration—including inflating the potential impact of the caravan of refugees from Central America into an “invasion” and the political stunt of sending the army to the Mexican border—energized his base. And his depiction of the confirmation hearings for now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh as a rabid Democratic smear campaign may have helped the Republicans in some states. The midterms confirmed the deepening split between urban America and largely white rural districts, where voters are sticking with Trump. But suburbanites who backed the Republicans in 2016, and, to a lesser extent white women, are increasingly refusing to lend their support to the president after two years of scorched-earth governance. The Democrats also are gaining a sizeable advantage with younger voters. With their majority, the Democrats in the House will try to hold Trump to account, including through possible investigations into alleged collaboration with Russia in 2016 and the president’s tax returns. Whether the Democrats will pay a price with voters for impeding the Trump agenda—including possibly holding up NAFTA 2.0—it will be interesting to watch, since the Republicans paid no price at all for stonewalling on everything possible during the Obama years. While not the sweeping renunciation of Trump many had hoped for, the midterms showed that, despite the advantage of incumbency two years from now, the Republican leader could be vulnerable. Much will of course depend on who leads the Democrats in 2020—very much an open question even this late in the game. The Democrats are badly divided over whether to nominate a progressive firebrand like Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas, the former punk rocker who almost pulled off an upset in staunchly right-wing Texas against Senator Ted Cruz, or a more traditional candidate who might more readily win over independents and Trump Democrats with a more centrist platform. In the latter case, someone like former vice-president Joe Biden might fit the bill. A Pennsylvania native, he could theoretically help make the Democrats bulletproof in the Midwest, where the 2020 electoral battle could be decided. But Biden, 75, has not committed yet to running; nor has O’Rourke for that matter. Above all, it seems indisputable that the Democrats must choose a presidential candidate who can convince average voters the party is in touch with their concerns and will fight the country’s powerful vested interests for their benefit. They also need someone who can navigate through the attempted character assassination and other general craziness Trump is certain to inject into the 2020 campaign. Despite some positive signs on Nov. 6, it still seems as though it will be an uphill fight for the Democrats in the presidential contest. The electoral college system significantly overvalues rural voters, a Trump mainstay. His white nationalist message is still powerful. And in the grotesque sideshow that passes for American public affairs, the president seems able yet to convince middle-class voters he is on their side, even as he brings in measures greatly favouring business, Wall Street, and the rich at their expense. After a half-century of generally pro-business, right-of-centre domination, policy-making in Washington needs to take a progressive turn. But betting that most Americans are ready to buy into such a shift two years from now would be a big risk. Les Whittington is an Ottawa journalist and a regular contributor to The Hill Times. The Hill Times

U.S. midterms offer hope for Democrats, but the outlook is anything but certain

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U.S. midterms offer hope for Democrats, but the outlook is anything but certain

While not the sweeping renunciation of Trump many had hoped for, the midterms showed that, despite the advantage of incumbency two years from now, the Republican leader could be vulnerable.

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