Fact versus fiction in the Middle East

To accept the theories recently put forward by Gwynn Dyer and Murray Dobbin in The Hill Times, one must ignore well-established facts to the point of indulging in fantasy. Contrary to Dyer and Dobbin’s position, the greatest threat to the stability of the Middle East today is Iran’s belligerence, exploiting puppet groups in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Many in the global community—from the UN to the EU to NGOs—have raised alarm bells about Iran’s dangerous activities. In its support of Shia militias (including from Afghanistan and Pakistan), Iran is determined to extend a “Shia Crescent” from Tehran to the Mediterranean, where it seeks to build a naval base. Not to be forgotten is Iran’s oft-declared ambition to destroy the “Zionist entity”—Israel. Iran has long used the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah to terrorize Israelis. However, during the past six years of civil war in Syria, thousands of Hezbollah fighters were re-deployed in Syria to protect Assad’s regime. Working with Iranian forces and Russian bombers, this bloody task was accomplished by the commission of war crimes against Syrian civilians. With that conflict winding down, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, may now refocus its efforts on Israel. Hezbollah possesses up to 150,000 Iranian-supplied missiles aimed at every region of the tiny country (smaller than Lake Ontario) that is Israel. In direct violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which requires the disarming of Lebanese militias and bans the placement of weapons in the south, these missiles are buried in heavily-fortified bunkers throughout southern Lebanon. Iranian-backed Hezbollah has ignored 1701 and turned southern Lebanon into a military zone, using civilians as human shields while hapless UN monitors look on, apparently incapable of enforcing their own resolution. Why go on about the situation in south Lebanon? Because Israeli leaders and analysts know full well that any future war with Hezbollah will be a costly and painful one for the people of Israel. Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defence system can falter under persistent missile volleys fired by Hezbollah. Israel’s northern residents, who have seen strong economic growth over the past decade of quiet, would find themselves under especially intense fire. Dobbin describes a cartoonish image of a besieged Israeli prime minister eager to start a “distracting” war. This simplistic geopolitical analysis, more appropriate to a Hollywood scriptwriter, betrays a shocking ignorance of Israeli democracy and Israel’s reluctance to risk soldiers’ lives in a country where most voters have a loved one in uniform. In a move that should have paved the way for peace, Israelis left Lebanon entirely in 2000. Tragically, Hezbollah destroyed this opportunity for peace by militarizing the south and endangering the region’s civilian populace. Hezbollah’s continued aggression against Israel (including the cross-border raids and missile fire that sparked war in 2006) shows that the group means what it says: Hezbollah opposes Israel’s very existence, not its policies. Israelis are justifiably worried about Hezbollah’s ever-growing arsenal, the UN’s failure to rein it in, and Iran’s plans to establish military bases and forward positions in southern Syria near Israel’s border –despite Israel’s efforts to prevent those incursions. It’s astonishing that Dyer dismisses as a “paranoid delusion” Israel’s concerns about Shia Iran’s designs on the region. The land corridor that Iran has been establishing from Tehran to the Mediterranean, enabling Iran to bring its weaponry and influence across the region, is a harsh, undeniable reality. So too is Iran’s active support for Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen, an effort to destabilize not only Yemen but also Saudi Arabia (which has a restive Shia minority). And yet, Dyer asserts: “There’s absolutely no evidence that the Houthis in Yemen are getting any material assistance from Iran.” This is ”alternative fact” to the point of absurd. The evidence, as reported by Reuters, the BBC, The New York Times, the Guardian, the Independent and others, that Iran has supplied the Houthis financially and militarily is simply overwhelming. In December 2014, as the Houthi solidified their capture of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, Reuters reported details “from Yemeni, Western and Iranian sources—of Iranian military and financial support to the Houthis before and after their takeover of Sanaa on Sept. 21.” That Dyer and Dobbin discard such well-documented evidence in favour of wild speculation (including Dobbin’s apocalyptic musings about a future nuclear war) does a massive disservice to readers who deserve verifiable, reliable information, and sober analysis. Any such examination of the facts would inevitably lead to the conclusion that the Iranian regime is dangerous and exerting a toxic effect on the lives of millions in the Middle East. Paul Michaels is director of research at the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA). The Hill Times

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Fact versus fiction in the Middle East

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