It’s time for summertime political predictions

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Now that summer is officially upon us, and the political world is a little more relaxed, it’s a good time to have some fun. And what’s more fun than playing a game of speculation, where we make wild guesses about future political tactics and strategy? Okay, admittedly lots of things are more fun, but work with me here. Just for the heck of it, let’s try to predict what kind of communication strategies Conservatives and New Democrats will employ in the next federal election to dethrone Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government. In other words, how will the opposition parties convince voters that it’s time for a change? Before we start playing, however, let’s make our speculation game more manageable by assuming the world of 2019 (when the next election is slated to take place) will be pretty much the same as the world of today. I’m making this a condition because, after all, any unexpected major event between now and 2019—a sudden economic downturn (or upturn), a dramatic government scandal, an invasion from Mars—would alter future strategies in ways even the Amazing Kreskin couldn’t possibly anticipate. So that said, let’s begin our game by considering the Conservative Party and how will it persuade Canadians the time has come to dump Trudeau? My bet is Conservatives will meticulously avoid the kind of blatantly populist messaging associated with U.S. President Donald Trump because (a) they will want to avoid comparisons to Trump and (b) they are too stodgily pro-establishment to embrace populism. So what will they do? Well, most obviously the Conservatives will do what Conservatives always do: talk a lot about the economy, focusing attacks on Trudeau’s fiscal record, painting him as a “tax and spend” Liberal who is plunging the country into a sea of debt. Yeah, I know, pretty boring. Less obviously and more riskily, I’m guessing the Conservatives might also try to turn Trudeau’s main strength into a weakness. They’ll do this, I predict, by contrasting Trudeau’s flamboyant and flashy style, with their own leader’s dull but responsible persona. Basically the message would be, “Andrew Scheer, his socks are bland, but his policies are sensible. Put an adult in charge.” True, that slogan needs a little work, but you get the idea. As for the New Democrats, well, unlike the Conservatives, my guess is their strategy will be to go full blown populist. In short, just like Bernie Sanders in the U.S. and Jeremy Corbyn in the U.K., Canada’s NDP will rant and rail against the corporate-capitalist establishment. Accordingly, in the next election, the party will focus its attacks on Trudeau’s defence of the economic status quo, on his hobnobbing with millionaires at fundraising events, on his pro-pipeline stances and on his inability to properly insult Donald Trump. What might make this approach a winning strategy is the apparent rise in Canada of what a recent CP/Ekos report called “Northern populism.” Yes, I know “Northern Populism” would make a great name for a racehorse, but according to the report it actually refers to a growing sense among Canada’s poor and working classes that the system is just not working for them. In fact, the report indicates Canada is becoming increasingly divided between “Those relatively comfortable with national and federal direction (i.e., ‘progressive’ Canada) and conservative Canada, who are decidedly unhappy with where we are headed.” Simply put, the NDP will play to the growing ranks of the unhappy. So those are my guesses as to what the Conservatives and NDP will be up to. Mind you, it’s summertime and the predictions are easy. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. www.gerrynicholls.com The Hill Times