How to counter the Liberal advantage

OAKVILLE, ONT.—Sometimes a political forecast isn’t a prediction; it’s more like a common sense observation. For instance, common sense tells me, that all things being equal, the next federal election will be handily won by the Justin Trudeau Liberals. I say that simply because the Liberals happen to enjoy a huge inherent structural advantage over the other parties, an advantage which can be summed up thusly: more Canadians identity as “Liberal” than as either “Conservative” or “New Democrat." Indeed, back in 2013 when the Liberals were still languishing as a third place party and when the Conservatives still ruled the roost in Ottawa, the conservative-leaning Manning Centre conducted a poll to ask Canadians which party they most closely identified with and guess what—26 per cent of Canadians answered Liberal, 25 per cent Conservative and 17 per cent said NDP. In other words, even at the Liberal Party’s darkest time (before Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader and swathed the country in the warm light of his sunny demeanour) it still led the pack in terms of brand. And it seems the Liberal brand advantage will only get wider. According to a recent Abacus poll, “seven in 10 young Canadians would consider voting Liberal, 12 points higher than the NDP, and 33 points higher than the Conservative Party.” So my point is, even before the writ is dropped, even before the first partisan TV ad is aired, even before Trudeau’s first adorable “election campaign selfie," the Liberals, if nothing else, will have an edge in raw numbers. The Liberals, in short, are like a runner who lines up for a race with a built-in head start. Anyway, this is what I mean when I say all things being equal the Liberals will win the next election. But, of course, in the next election all things might not be equal. Indeed, it’s possible the Conservatives and New Democrats will able to change the electoral equation in a way which neutralizes the Liberal numbers advantage. How? Well the most basic way to counter the Liberal numerical edge is to actively promote what an American political consultant friend of mine likes to call “rejectionist” voting. That’s to say rather than convincing voters to support their own respective parties, the Conservatives and New Democrats must figure out a way to convince voters to reject the Liberals. And yes, some Liberal-leaning voters will reject the Liberals if given a good enough reason. Recall how in the 2011 federal election many Liberal-leaning voters snubbed their preferred party basically because the Conservatives convinced them that then Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff was an out of touch academic. Maybe they didn’t vote Conservative, but maybe they stayed home on election day. So how can the opposition parties work up a Liberal rejectionist mindset for the next federal election? Well, perhaps they can ride the populist anti-establishment wave that seems to be surging in the Western World, including perhaps here in Canada. In fact, a recent study by the public relations firm Edelman indicates that “80 per cent of people (in Canada) think the elites who run institutions are out of touch with regular people” and “69 per cent say we need to prioritize Canadian interests over the rest of the world.” If this report is accurate it means resentment—the fuel of populism—could be a strong emotional weapon to wield against the Liberals. Just as in the recent U.S. presidential election Donald Trump successfully tagged Hillary Clinton and the Democrats as “elites”, so too could the Conservatives or New Democrats label Trudeau and the Liberals. And yes, that’s just a common sense observation. Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant. www.gerrynicholls.com The Hill Times