January NDP leadership convention could kill Mulcair’s chances of winning, say NDP insiders

If the NDP honours Jack Layton's dying wish to hold a leadership convention in January to select his successor—as a top party backroomer predicts will occur—the speedy time frame would severely limit Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair's chances or kill them, two senior New Democrats say. The prospect adds a new and potentially contentious dimension to the leadership positioning and speculation that has taken place behind the scenes since shortly after Mr. Layton's sudden death early last Monday. It burst onto a new level when news that party president Brian Topp was being touted as one of the leading contenders for the job. Mr. Mulcair (Outremont, Que) did not utter a peep publicly last week about any leadership aspirations even though his name, as the senior MP with one of the party's highest profiles in Quebec, leapt to the top of most published lists of rumoured and touted prospective candidates. But it seems Mr. Layton's unprecedented letter he entrusted his wife, NDP MP Olivia Chow (Trinity Spadina, Ont.) to release following his death, essentially contained not only a map for how best the party can maintain and grow its unprecedented support among Quebec voters and voters elsewhere in the country, but also a timetable that could dampen Mr. Mulcair's hopes. Mr. Layton indicated his preference for the January timing near the beginning of his unusual letter, in the fourth paragraph immediately under his recommendation that the party keep MP Nycole Turmel (Hull-Aylmer, Que.) as interim leader until party members elect his successor. "I recommend the party hold a leadership vote as early as possible in the New Year, on approximately the same timelines as in 2003, so that our new leader has ample time to reconsolidate our team, renew our party and our program, and move foreward towards the next election," the letter says. Mr. Layton won the party leadership on Jan. 24, 2003, on the first ballot of voting. An MP told The Hill Times the schedule would leave little time for Mr. Mulcair, as a former Liberal and newcomer to the NDP, to generate widespread national support. "If we do go with a January convention he has very little time to marshal that number of people to support him," said the MP, who did not want to discuss the leadership publicly until after Mr. Layton's funeral. Mr. Mulcair's biggest difficulty, the New Democrat told The Hill Times, will be building support in Quebec, where the party barely has a membership despite the fact it won a record 59 Commons seats in the election last May. As has been highlighted in the recent controversy over Ms. Turmel's former membership in the Bloc Québécois and a left-wing, but minor, provincial separatist party in the province, as well as other post-election news stories highlighting the fact that most Quebec voters who flocked en masse to the party are former Bloc Québécois supporters, many of whom likely have Parti Québécois memberships provincially. That does not spell good news for Mr. Mulcair—a former environment minister in Jean Charest's Quebec Liberal government who quit in 2006 when Mr. Charest offered him a demotion to Government Services Minister—if he intends to build the campaign base New Democrats say he requires for a successful bid. "Tom has impressed a lot of people across the country. He is a very good speaker. Bluntly, he is difficult to work with, the Liberals told us that when he came over, and he is," the New Democrat said. "The party membership across the country has I think a good deal of respect for him, so he'll pick up support, but he still needs a strong base I don't think he has enough time if we go with the January , but we may end up putting it over, out of respect for him, and I'm hoping we'll have at least one more candidate out of Quebec." But another New Democrat who was close to Mr. Layton and his top circle of advisers told The Hill Times it is inevitable the party will comply with the wishes Mr. Layton put down in writing two days before his death, which, it later emerged, he composed with the help of Ms. Chow, his principal secretary Brad Lavigne, and Mr. Topp, the longtime backroomer and successful campaign strategist and director who emerged so suddenly as a favoured contender to succeed Mr. Layton. The connected backroomer who spoke to The Hill Times said members of Mr. Layton's inner circle "loath" Mr. Mulcair. "I would think that would be pretty tough, for the party to say, 'No we're not going to do what Jack wanted' after all of this. I think his dying suggestion will be written in stone for the party. They will see that as something they will have to do to honour his memory and legacy," said the New Democrat. Another MP also expressed the view that a January convention—with nine weeks of Commons sittings from Sept. 19 until mid-December when Parliament recesses for a long Christmas and mid-winter break—could virtually kill Mr. Mulcair's chances. "That's right, because he has to sell memberships way outside of Quebec, and he hasn't got time," the MP said. "He would have had to have a team of 50 volunteers and activists working in every region of the country selling membership like crazy right now, and I don't think anybody has that up and running," said the veteran NDPer. Mr. Mulcair did not return a telephone call The Hill Times placed to his Montreal constituency office last Friday, prior to Mr. Layton's funeral on Saturday. With the Conservative and Liberal parties both trying to exploit the delicate balancing act the NDP is trying to accomplish, holding on to nationalist and former Bloc support in Quebec while developing a strategy to expand outside the province, the choice of its next leader is crucial. The party's breakthrough in Commons seats last May was accompanied by other records that suggest skepticism about its chances of actually forming a government in the next election may be hasty. NDP candidates placed second in 121 ridings beyond the 103 the party won, and for the first time it won enough votes to qualify for the return of campaign deposits and candidate expense rebates in 306 of the 308 federal electoral districts. Carleton University political scientist Richard Nimijean told The Hill Times the party's leadership choice is vital, particularly on the heels of Layton and the astonishing response to his death last week from Canadians across the country. "What Layton was very successful at was tapping into what Canadians felt about the country, the mood of the country and what they wanted, and part of it I think reflected how Canadians saw themselves. He was very Chrétien-like," said Prof. Nimijean. tnaumetz@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

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January NDP leadership convention could kill Mulcair’s chances of winning, say NDP insiders

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