Tories to focus hard on ‘flipping’ close ridings in next federal election campaign

The Tories and Liberals, who are neck and neck in public opinion polls, will focus on 80 of the closest ridings in the next election campaign. "Parties will pay more attention to seats that were close during the last election," said Conservative strategist Tim Powers. "It should come as no surprise that hard work will go into protecting what you have and flipping close ones that were within reach." Of the 80 ridings that were won by a margin of 10 per cent or less, in some cases a 10 per cent victory margin is only a few thousand votes, the Conservatives hold 28 across the country. The Liberals hold 26, while the NDP hold 14 and the Bloc Québécois hold 11. Independent MP Andre Arthur (Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Que.) holds the last one. Of the vulnerable Conservative seats, the Liberals came in second place in 20 of them and the NDP five. The Bloc Québécois came in second place in two of the ridings, and an independent candidate came in second in one. Of the Liberal vulnerable seats, the Conservatives came in second place in 20 of them while the NDP came in second in four of them, and the Bloc Québécois in two. Of the NDP seats, the Conservatives came in second place in eight of them, and the Liberals in the rest. Of the Bloc Québécois vulnerable ridings, the Liberals came in second place in seven of them while the Conservatives came in second place in three of them, and the NDP one. If the Conservatives are able to win the seats they currently hold, and win 20 Liberal seats where they came second in, they would receive a healthy majority government in the next election. Alternatively, if the Liberals hold on to all the seats they currently hold and win all 33 seats where they came second in, it would still not be enough for a minority government. The Liberals would need the help of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to win the Conservative seats they came in second in, and win an extra seven seats elsewhere to form a weak majority. Because the battles are so close, Mr. Powers said one of the keys to overtaking the seat and winning is to drive up voter outcome. "You win on the ground by identifying your vote and doing everything you can to get them out to vote. That comes from having experienced campaign workers and volunteers working their butts of on election day to get people to the polls," he said. "Often the national campaign will work with different ridings where candidates are on more securing footing to send human and other resources to districts where races are close. That is pretty standard across all parties." In the 2008 election, Conservative MP Peter Braid won his Kitchener-Waterloo, Ont., riding by only 17 votes, a margin of victory of only 0.03 per cent to his Liberal competitor. Similarly, Liberal MP MP Ujjal Dosanjh, an incumbent for the 2008 election, won his Vancouver South, B.C., riding by only 20 votes, a 0.05 per cent margin of victory to his Conservative competitor. In comparison, Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq won her Nunavut riding by 466 votes, but that meant a 5.78 per cent margin of victory. There were 14 ridings in which MPs won with less than 500 votes, making "identifying your vote" and getting them to the polls on election day even more important. Liberal MP Siobhan Coady (St. John's South-Mount Pearl, Nfld.), a first-time MP, won her riding in 2008 by a 2.75 per cent margin of victory, and 949 votes. The NDP candidate in her riding garnered 40.57 per cent of the vote in 2008. Ms. Coady told The Hill Times that she is working hard to widen that gap. "Well, I think everybody should have a healthy respect for what the electorate's going to want in the next election. From that perspective, yes, I'm working very hard in my riding," she said. "I've tried to do what I wanted to do in politics, which is this engaged democracy, so I've done a lot of town halls, a lot of community events, a lot of one on ones so that I have an opportunity to hear from my riding and what I'm hearing from my riding is that they really appreciate the opportunity that they have to put their views forward. I'm getting really positive feedback in the riding." Ms. Coady said there is never a "safe" seat and that MPs have to continue fighting to be able to represent their communities. "I think you can never say safe, can you? I think that would be disrespectful to the electorate. You put your case before them. I've worked very hard in the riding. I've been very vocal here in Ottawa. I've been on my feet an awful lot. I've proven to the riding that I work hard for them and that's what I'm presenting, the knowledge that I have, and the hard work that I will do for them, and I hope that translates," she said. The Conservatives were shut out of Newfoundland in the last election, thanks in part to the ABC campaign by Conservative Premier Danny Williams who urged Newfoundlanders to vote for "Anyone But Conservatives." Mr. Williams said at the time that the federal Conservative government did not keep its promise on the Atlantic Accord which previously stated that offshore oil royalties would not factor into equalization payments to the province. Ms. Coady, and fellow Liberal Newfoundlander Todd Russell (Labrador, Nfld.), said there probably won't be a dedicated "ABC" campaign in the next election, but that Newfoundlanders still don't trust the federal Conservatives. Mr. Powers, however, said that two to three Newfoundland seats are up for grabs in the next election, and the Conservatives are poised to win them, although he didn't say where. Ms. Coady's St. John's South-Mount Pearl riding and MP Scott Andrews' riding in Avalon are considered the most at risk. "I think the relationship between Newfoundland and Ottawa has improved over the last two years. Much of the credit on the federal side goes to the regional Minister Peter MacKay (Central Nova, N.S.), Senator Fabian Manning and others who have worked diligently to foster a productive relationship," Mr. Powers said. "Equally in Newfoundland the Williams government has also taken the view that the past is the past. Personally, as a Newfoundlander and a Canadian, I prefer cooperation to conflict. It seems unlikely there will be any ABC campaign. These are different times. Though that doesn't mean there won't be the odd federal-provincial squabble, but that's politics. "When all of the Newfoundland Conservative family has worked together in the past it has been proven that federal seats can be won. If the family is together and the right candidates are in place perhaps two seats can be won, maybe three." Last week, Ekos released a poll showing the Conservatives with 33.1 per cent support and the Liberals at 29.9 per cent. The NDP has 13.3 per cent of support while the Bloc Québécois hold 10.1 per cent. The Green Party, which has no seats, but has come in third place in a few of the 80 closest ridings, has 10.9 per cent support. The poll was taken from Sept. 22-28 with 2.267 Canadians. The margin of error is 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Hill Times

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Tories to focus hard on ‘flipping’ close ridings in next federal election campaign

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