Loss of eastern seat, division of municipalities under fire in proposed Quebec riding redraw

The first draft of Quebec’s new federal electoral map is out, and it’s raising the eyebrows of federal and local politicians who are concerned by the proposed loss of a riding in eastern Quebec and decisions to split multiple municipalities between ridings. “Although I understand the role and objectives of the commission, in particular to protect the relative weight of the vote of each voter—an essential mission for the good of our democracy—the current proposal strikes me as ill advised,” said Bloc Québécois MP Rhéal Fortin (Rivière-du-Nord, Que.) in a French email response to The Hill Times. “Beyond mathematics,” Fortin noted the commission is meant to respect communities of interest and consider geography, “including existing administrative boundaries” and “the natural identification of voters with their community,” something he said it “obviously did not do by dividing the town of Prévost in two and removing the municipality of Saint-Hippolyte” from his current riding. If the proposal goes ahead, residents of Prévost would have one provincial representative, but two in the House of Commons—“an astonishing and counterproductive situation,” he said. Fortin’s riding is one of six that commissioners have proposed carving up to create a new riding in the Laurentians north of Montreal, with Saint-Hippolyte and part of Prévost going to the new riding of Les Pays-d’en-Haut, along with parts of the ridings of Mirabel, Montcalm, Joliette, Laurentides–Labelle, and Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation. Fortin said he intends to make his case to the commission, urging it to preserve the territory of his riding in its “entirety.” The current electoral map of the area around Montreal. Screenshot courtesy of redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca The proposed new electoral map, including the new riding of Les Pays-d'en-Haut. Rivière-du-Nord is No. 63 on the map. Screenshot courtesy of redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca Federal ridings in Canada are rejigged to reflect population changes following the completion of the census every 10 years. Originally set to lose one seat overall this time around, thanks to Bill C-14, which received royal assent on June 23, Quebec will keep its 78 federal seats. But population shifts within the province could see its eastern region drop a seat, going from four to three in the Gaspé peninsula, to add a new seat north of Montreal. Quebec’s population grew 7.6 per cent between the 2011 and 2021 census, from 7.9-million to 8.5-million. With 78 seats, that works out to an electoral quota of 108,998 people per riding—the average size commissioners are mandated to strive to keep to within 25 per cent of, above or below. In its report released July 29, the commission notes the “average population of the entire area” of eastern Quebec is “the lowest of all the regions in Quebec,” with the populations of the region’s four ridings sitting between 11.3 and 35.5 per cent below the new provincial quota. “This situation is part of a decline that began several decades ago,” notes the report. “In order to respect the principal of relative voter parity, the commission proposes reducing the number of MP seats for the region from four to three.” The redraw would see Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia absorbed by neighbouring ridings—a shift deemed the “best option” by commissioners in part because it’s the “least populated” of all of Quebec’s ridings. Specifically, Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup would see its borders moved east and south, to newly meet the border of New Brunswick and absorb the Témiscouata region from the current riding of Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques. That riding would also see its border shifted east to capture La Mitis and area from Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia, the rest of which would be merged with Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine on the eastern tip of the peninsula. In turn, commissioners have proposed renaming it Gasépsie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine–Listuguj, in recognition of the Mi’gmaq First Nation that would be newly located within its bounds. By contrast, the Laurentians and Lanaudière region north of Montreal has seen “remarkable population growth,” with the ridings of Laurentides–Labelle, Rivière-du-Nord, and Mirabel swelling by 11.2 to 28.4 per cent between 2011 and 2021, an “upward trend” that “is not going to wane anytime soon,” reads the report—hence the proposed creation of Les Pays-d’en-Haut. In an open letter released Aug. 12, Bloc MPs called the decision to split Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia “unimaginable,” noting the new boundaries would “pass through the heart” of the regional county municipalities (RCMs) of La Matapédia and La Matanie, “thus separating villages and municipalities that have much in common and have always worked together.” “From a mathematical perspective, this seems logical," reads the French letter. The problem is that "the demographic argument seems to be the only element taken into account by the commission.” “More importantly, this redistricting would remove one of the four voices of eastern Quebec in the House of Commons and thus weaken its political weight,” it continues. “Three voices to represent the citizens of territories as large as those of European countries," which can count on being administered by full parliaments. In the letter, the Bloc vows to “mobilize and form a united front” to push for the proposal’s withdrawal “over the next few months.” The current electoral map for the Gaspé peninsula is pictured bottom, under the proposed redraw that would eliminate Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia. Images courtesy of redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca Bloc MP Kristina Michaud, who has represented Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia since 2019, has called the proposal absurd, according to Le Soleil. Covering some 14,000 square kilometres, her riding contains 56 municipalities (between four RCMs) and two Indigenous communities, and she said “knowing the regional reality and the size of the territory,” the proposal “does not make sense.” “Cutting in the middle is completely insane and I think that’s the reaction of pretty much everyone,” she told the paper. Three parties currently have a stake in the Gaspé peninsula, and all four ridings have flipped hands over the last decade. Liberal National Revenue Minister Diane Lebouthillier holds Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (it was previously NDP) and Conservative Bernard Généreux represents Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup (it was previously Bloc)—both since 2015. The two ridings nestled between them have been represented by Bloc MPs since 2019 (one was formerly NDP, the other Liberal). While her office did not respond to requests for comment from The Hill Times, Lebouthillier told Le Soleil she was “stunned” by the proposal, saying: “It is inconceivable, inadmissible and unacceptable. It doesn’t work.” If carried out, the changes would likely make for a greater electoral challenge for Lebouthillier in particular. She was re-elected in 2021 with a 7.1 percentage-point margin over the second-place Bloc candidate; Généroux, meanwhile, had a vote margin of roughly 24.3 percentage points over the second-place Bloc candidate. Généroux has also criticized the proposal. Noting he already drives hundreds of kilometres per week, in a French interview with Le Placoteux he questioned how he would be able to effectively represent 75 municipalities under the new boundaries, as well as the proposed name change (his riding would become Montmagny–Témiscouata–Kataskomiq). Articles by Le Soleil, Le Placoteux, TVA Nouvelles’ CIMT/CHAU, and Le Journal de Québec have quoted concerns from multiple local elected officials over proposals to split up various municipalities and RCMs. Matthew Dubé, pictured during a press conference in 2017, was a Quebec NDP MP from 2011 to 2019. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade While former Quebec NDP MP Matthew Dubé, now a senior associate at Proof Strategies, predicted the Bloc would criticize the loss of a riding in eastern Quebec as part of its “narrative of alienation” in an interview Aug. 11 with The Hill Times, he noted that both eastern Quebec and the Laurentians are regions where the party has historically done well, and suggested “both situations present opportunity and good news for the Bloc” and will “be a challenge to the Liberals.” “There being less elbow room … is not a good thing for the Liberals,” he said, and would present a “huge challenge” for Lebouthillier to avoid being squeezed out. The Bloc has done well in the Laurentians since the current electoral map went on the board in 2015, with the party currently holding five of the six ridings. The exception is Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation, which Liberal MP Stéphane Lauzon has held since 2015. Dubé’s former riding of Beloeil–Chambly, represented by Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet since 2019, would see a comparatively smaller boundary change under the proposal, with part of the municipality of Carignan going to the neighbouring riding of Montarville. Dubé noted that the “carving up” of small municipalities was something “we fought hard to avoid” during the last redistribution process, and he predicted the proposal this time around will “be a bit of an issue.” “I find it odd again to be splitting up a city of that size, particularly because they share a lot of municipal services,” he said. In an email response to The Hill Times, former Liberal MP David Graham, whose riding of Laurentides–Labelle is among those feeding creation of Les Pays-d’en-Haut, similarly criticized the “inexplicable weirdness” of the proposal to split small municipalities—in his case, Amherst and La Peche—between two ridings, arguing that “riding boundaries should follow municipal boundaries to the extent possible.” David Graham, pictured during a House committee meeting in 2018, was a Quebec Liberal MP from 2015 to 2019. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade But, given the current size of Laurentides–Labelle (almost 20,000 square kilometres with 43 municipalities), he said hiving off a new riding “makes sense” and was something he anticipated. Graham noted, aside from losing ground to create Les Pays-d’en-Haut, his former riding would pick up “quite a bit of territory from the current riding of Pontiac along the Gatineau River all the way to Wakefield, which will make it a solidly National Capital Region riding, which it was not before.” In all, 61 of Quebec's 78 ridings would see boundary changes and 12 ridings would see names changed under the proposal. Dubé noted last time around, the commission experimented with naming ridings after historical figures, a “weird” attempt that sparked a lot of backlash and was ultimately abandoned. This time, commissioners noted “most” of the proposed name changes stem from a desire to, “for the first time, reflect the presence of all recognize Indigenous nations in Quebec” (10 First Nations and one Inuit nation). Examples include Pontiac, which would become Pontiac–Kitigan Zibi, and La Prairie, which would become La Prairie–Atateken. “It is a matter of recognizing their rightful place not only in the reality of Quebec today, but also in its history. The Commission sees this as a further step toward ensuring that ‘reconciliation becomes a reality’ in the words of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada in its final report,” reads the report. The commission noted attempts to consult Indigenous communities in ridings where name changes would add reference to them, and of the two responses received, one was negative, leading it to reverse its proposal to add Wendake to the name of Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles (the Huron-Wendat Nation in Wendake would newly be included within this riding under the proposal). Liberal MP Brenda Shanahan will no doubt be happy to see the commission has proposed a new name for her riding of Châteauguay–Lacolle. She's pushed for a name change since the last redistribution process, as the municipality of Lacolle does not lie within its bounds. Commissioners have suggested renaming it Châteauguay–Les Jardins-de-Napierville, a name Shanahan has previously said her constituents support. The Quebec commission is holding six in-person public hearings between Sept. 6-13 and 14 between Sept. 19-Oct. 11, along with virtual hearings on Sept. 14 and Oct. 13. Newfoundland and Labrador The redistribution commission for Newfoundland and Labrador released a proposed new map on June 28. The province’s population shrunk almost 0.8 per cent between the 2011 and 2021 censuses, from 514,536 to 510,550. With seven seats, that works out to an electoral quota of 72,936 per riding. Despite Labrador’s population being well below that quota—a 63.5 per cent variance—commissioners have opted to keep it as a single riding (which it’s been for the last 35 years), arguing that its “history, geography and community of interest, as well as the strength of its many distinct Indigenous communities, warrant the continuance of a separate electoral district.” On the island of Newfoundland, “for the most part, only small adjustments were required to the boundaries,” notes the commission’s report. Avalon’s population jumped 6.9 per cent between 2011 and 2021, and in turn the commission has proposed dropping its northern most tip, which currently extends up to Salmon Cove and includes a number of communities on Conception Bay. That ground would be shifted to the current riding of Bonavista–Burin–Trinity, with the border of Spaniard’s Bay and Bay Roberts (which would remain in Avalon) serving as the new dividing line. Commissioners have in turn proposed renaming Bonavista–Burin–Trinity as Terra Nova–The Peninsulas to reflect its new inclusion of three peninsulas (the Burin and Bonavista peninsulas and the Bay de Verde Peninsula), as well as Terra Nova National Park. Avalon, though, would also pick up a bit of ground in the northeast to capture the entire Town of Paradise, which is currently divided between it and St. John’s East. Newfoundland's current electoral map near St. John's. Screenshot courtesy of redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca The proposed new map around St. John's. Screenshot courtesy of redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca St. John’s East would see the southern end of its western border nudged further west so that residents on both sides of the St. John’s Harbour are within its bounds (those on the west are currently in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl). The northern border for St. John’s South–Mount Pearl, meanwhile, would move south to rest along Highway 1. The commission has proposed a new name for the riding, given it includes “several significant municipalities” beyond St. John’s and Mount Pearl. In light of “its distinction as the most easterly point in North America,” they’ve suggested calling it Cape Spear. Under the proposal, these ridings would be left with populations between 79,745 (Avalon, a 9.3 per cent variance above the provincial quota) and 81,173 (for Cape Spear, which would be 11.3 per cent above the quota). Six of the province’s seven ridings are currently represented by Liberal MPs (from 2015 to 2019 it was entirely Liberal-held). The outlier is Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame, a former Liberal riding held by Conservative MP Clifford Small since 2021. The commission is holding 12 in-person public hearings on the proposal between Aug. 15 and Sept. 15, and one virtual hearing on Sept. 16. lryckewaert@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

Loss of eastern seat, division of municipalities under fire in proposed Quebec riding redraw

The province will keep its 78 seats, but commissioners have proposed a rejig that would see eastern Quebec lose one seat, with a new one carved out north of Montreal.

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Loss of eastern seat, division of municipalities under fire in proposed Quebec riding redraw

The province will keep its 78 seats, but commissioners have proposed a rejig that would see eastern Quebec lose one seat, with a new one carved out north of Montreal.

To keep reading, subscribe and become a political insider.

Only $7.76 a week for an annual subscription.

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